Did He Touch Home?

[Mondogarage]

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Football? Meh, now it's all about point spread and gambloors, not the game, so of course it's most important to get it right. Baseball? It's still a game.

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Baseball spent its first 50 years as a popular spectator sport in America (pretty much until the 1920s) as little more than a medium for gambling -- something akin to horse racing today. While the Black Sox were obviously the most notorious culprits, the so-called Golden Age of baseball was absolutely rife with gambling. Much of the reason baseball attained the popularity it did in the late 19th/early 20th century is because ballgames were populated with gambloors who used the game as a medium for prop bets with each other.

And if you think gambooling on baseball by the masses stopped after the Black Sox, consider that tens of thousands of dollars (if not more) changed hands just in twoplustwo run fantasy baseball leagues this season.

It has never been "just a game".

/hijack

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I think you miss my point -- I'm not denying gambling in baseball. My point is that the football experience is now completely dominated by gambling, and that is not the case with baseball. What happens on 2+2 is hardly a microcosm of what the general public sporting experience is, but I'm pretty sure you'll find whatever $$$ is wagered overall in baseball is but a few small percentage points of what it is in football, over the course of any given year. And, of course, it's that amount of money at stake that makes "getting it right" all-important.

Not that blowing calls in baseball is forgiveable or excuseable, but I still believe if not for the kazillions wagered on football, there would be less insistence on instant replay.

[Aces McGee]

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1st and 3rd no outs is a completely different situation than the bases loaded no outs when you absolutely cannot let one run score.

You can't go for the DP because the runner on third comes home. It's better to load up the bases to AT LEAST get the force at home if not the X-2-3 double play.

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if I remember ev right it was .894 for bl and .9 for 1 and 3rd, but the difference between carroll and helton probably makes that enough to not walk him.

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I doubt it matters much, but Hawpe, not Helton, was on deck.

-McGee

[Mondogarage]

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I saw the replay of the "homer" several times and it really looked to me as if it hit the yellow marking at the top of the wall.

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totally agree. the people who are arguing it hit a wheelchair are blowing my mind. I feel like i saw the ball hit that yellow thing on replay like 50+ times. How on earth would the ball bounce back like that from hitting a wheelchair? rofl.

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Metal, dude, metal. That ball bounced back a lot further than if it hit padding. At any rate, I was at Coors Field, and ran into at least two people in the left field pavilion section who say they saw it, and one replay angle from the left side appears to support them.

But it's a moot point.

[Hollywade]

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It seemed as thought he umpire was just like "ok he dropped the ball, holliday must have touched the plate at some point even though i obviously didn't see it"

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I agree that is exactly what it seemed like. I think McClelland made a mistake and it seems odd that one of the most well-respected umps in the game would make a mistake like this.

The half-assed safe motion two seconds late really seemed like, "I have no idea if he touched the plate or not but I'm gonna guess safe."

[bugstud]

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1st and 3rd no outs is a completely different situation than the bases loaded no outs when you absolutely cannot let one run score.

You can't go for the DP because the runner on third comes home. It's better to load up the bases to AT LEAST get the force at home if not the X-2-3 double play.

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if I remember ev right it was .894 for bl and .9 for 1 and 3rd, but the difference between carroll and helton probably makes that enough to not walk him.

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I doubt it matters much, but Hawpe, not Helton, was on deck.

-McGee

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damn poster in front of me missing that. This matters a lot, hawpe is an awful good rightykiller. IF you have the option to put a lefty in, you can walk carroll and stick it to hawpe instead. Fun scenario all around. Barring a lefty, maintain the pitch to carroll walk next guy plan.

[Neuge]

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pudge,

interesting thoughts about the walk. I hadn't thought of that.

I still think going for home is the right move on just about every OF save for a few cannons. 0 outs and just a man on 3rd maybe not, but Helton advancing to second has to swing it well into +EV territory, doesn't it?

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He has to be safe at home >59.8% of the time for it to be +EV (assuming the runner on 1st isn't an idiot and advances to 2nd if the runner is thrown out at home). That goes up to >62.3% if there's only a runner on third.

[Mondogarage]

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Was anyone surprised they didn't walk the bases loaded?

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I thought about that at the time, but I think the Padres were more concerned about not letting Todd Helton beat them than anything else.

The TBS guys were are making it very clear that Carroll was basically a defensive replacement. I don't know much about him as a hitter, but obviously SD felt he was the right guy to pitch to.

Also, I think walking the bases loaded puts a lot of extra pressure on the pitcher and takes away his margin for error. Even though Trevor Hoffman is a Hall of Famer, I think Bud Black felt more comfortable knowing that if Hoffman lost the next batter on four balls, it wouldn't cost them the game.

In this situation, I think 1st and 3rd is pretty close to the same situation as bases loaded from the defense's perspective. All the infielders are playing in. Anything on the ground to any of them is coming home. While a tag play might be slightly more difficult than setting up the force at home, on most groundballs that are able to be fielded by a drawn in infield, I don't think it makes a big difference.

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If you walk the bases loaded, you're facing Brad Hawpe with no outs. The idea was to get Carroll on a popup or strikeout, then walk Hawpe to load the bases. Pitcher's spot is up next, and aside from Stewart, Barmes, and Ianetta, the bench was getting sparse.

The strategy was sound, but the throw wasn't awesome, the call may have been bad, etc.

Carroll was not only a defensive replacement, but a faster runner than Atkins, if anyone had hit a single after the blown home run call. Atkins is pretty much molasses on the basepaths.

[Mondogarage]

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1st and 3rd no outs is a completely different situation than the bases loaded no outs when you absolutely cannot let one run score.

You can't go for the DP because the runner on third comes home. It's better to load up the bases to AT LEAST get the force at home if not the X-2-3 double play.

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if I remember ev right it was .894 for bl and .9 for 1 and 3rd, but the difference between carroll and helton probably makes that enough to not walk him.

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I doubt it matters much, but Hawpe, not Helton, was on deck.

-McGee

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damn poster in front of me missing that. This matters a lot, hawpe is an awful good rightykiller. IF you have the option to put a lefty in, you can walk carroll and stick it to hawpe instead. Fun scenario all around. Barring a lefty, maintain the pitch to carroll walk next guy plan.

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Thatcher is the Padres lefty-killer, and had made Hawpe look stupid silly, last time through the order, but he was out of the game by then.

[Hollywade]

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It's better to load up the bases to AT LEAST get the force at home if not the X-2-3 double play.

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I guess a lot of it depends on your pitcher. If the guy has a tendency to be wild, you're flirting with disaster by walking the bases loaded.

I remember Black going out to talk to Hoffman at one point. I'm not sure which batter was up at the time, but I wonder if Black asked him how he felt about walking the bases loaded. When it's a proven veteran like Hoffman, I would imagine the manager puts a lot of stock in how he feels about the situation.

I still think they played it right. Brad Hawpe is much scarier than Carroll. If you can't nibble at the corners with Hawpe up there (which you wouldn't be able to with the bases loaded), he's going to get a pitch to handle, and with the year he's had, I am almost certain he could hit something that would score that run.

Very exciting game to watch any way you look at it.

[g-bebe]

can we all just take a second, and appreciate the NL most valuable player, matt holliday, and his ability to beat the throw and tag home plate safe?