AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in

[Exitonly]

Just at first glance, i think calling looks kinda bad here for a few reasons:

- we're not closing the action, cold caller isn't going anywhere, probably jamming, and presumably BB shoves, then i guess we fold? i dunno.
- AK is the obvious scare cards, when we hit, we wont get paid easily/as often
- we're just gonna be folding on most flops

so, i shove, but i think folding is likely better than ccalling

[s33w33d]

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One reason you shove here with AK vs. calling is that you really want to see all 5 cards vs. 22-QQ, instead of just 3.

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And normally that's exactly what I would say, but again nobody's really talking about the fact that both of us are so deep. Again, easy push for that reason with 20-30 BBs, but 50...

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Sure, but in this situation you have a ton of fold equity due to bubble, no? I mean, he probably folds QQ here, if he's that concerned about cashing?

I almost like folding more than calling just because if he has 22-QQ, he's for SURE going away if an A or K flop and you stick it in.

[MLG]

fwiw stumpy did great great work in this thread.

[ZJ123]

i think this is actually a interesting spot, only because were so deep. I mean a 100k pot b4 the money in a freezeout is pretty sick. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Ok, well first i would say calling sucks, you have no implied odds with AK, infact you have reverse implied odds, when he has AA or KK, etc. Your basically never going to stack him, unless the flop is like KKK or AAK, which obviously doesn't happen to often. So calling is out of the question. Also when we decided the flat, MP2 could easilyyyy just stick it in there, then we would have to fold when the BB shoves.

Folding? I actually think its pretty close between folding and shoving. I think randoms arent raising as light as the OP said, I think hes raising a pretty small range here. We would still have a huge stack and no one has to know you folded AK.

Shoving--I think this is marginally best, i wouldn't fault a shove or a fold here, as with these stacks, were too shallow to flat and were almost (key word-almost [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ) too deep to shove.

[Dave D]

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One reason you shove here with AK vs. calling is that you really want to see all 5 cards vs. 22-QQ, instead of just 3.

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And normally that's exactly what I would say, but again nobody's really talking about the fact that both of us are so deep. Again, easy push for that reason with 20-30 BBs, but 50...

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Sure, but in this situation you have a ton of fold equity due to bubble, no? I mean, he probably folds QQ here, if he's that concerned about cashing?

I almost like folding more than calling just because if he has 22-QQ, he's for SURE going away if an A or K flop and you stick it in.

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Nah, just to re-assert here I felt like BB had TT+, and he's calling a push like 80% of the time. That's my read.

MP2 might fold to the raise, but is very likely to just call if I call. That's my read on him.

[Dave D]

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Just at first glance, i think calling looks kinda bad here for a few reasons:

- we're not closing the action, cold caller isn't going anywhere, probably jamming, and presumably BB shoves, then i guess we fold? i dunno.
- AK is the obvious scare cards, when we hit, we wont get paid easily/as often
- we're just gonna be folding on most flops

so, i shove, but i think folding is likely better than ccalling

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See the directly above post.

Also, although implied odds certainly matter, I think I'm getting express odds to hit if I call here given my read that Mp2 will call.

[ZJ123]

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Just at first glance, i think calling looks kinda bad here for a few reasons:

- we're not closing the action, cold caller isn't going anywhere, probably jamming, and presumably BB shoves, then i guess we fold? i dunno.
- AK is the obvious scare cards, when we hit, we wont get paid easily/as often
- we're just gonna be folding on most flops

so, i shove, but i think folding is likely better than ccalling

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See the directly above post.

Also, although implied odds certainly matter, I think I'm getting express odds to hit if I call here given my read that Mp2 will call.

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thats the problem MP2 is never calling, hes either shoving or folding, hes 23bbs deep.

[Exitonly]

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Particularly because we're 5 from the money. The $60 bubble payout is worth quite a few chips, so a 50/50 is no good without a lot of overlay.

2000 players, $25 entry, pays $60 to top 180. (This is approx for the 25+2.50 double stack.)

After the bubble each chip is worth 0.6533 cents. $60 = 9183 chips.

If we had a play here that was worth +9000 chips on average, but we went broke 50% of the time, folding would be a better option.


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I thought this was especially interesting. I hadn't really seen a way to put numbers behind this before. 9000 chips is a lot of chips to win on average, too, so thats a pretty big cev/ev seperation.

[odellthurman]

Dave - I just read your post in MTTC and then came to check out this thread. Why are you so adamant that BB's range is TT+? Let's assume that I am BB and my perception of you is based on what you describe - opening a lot, and you have shown down a bluff. Also, let's say that my perception of MP is that he sucks and wants desperately to cash. Given that we are at 185 players and 180 cash, I think, if I'm BB, my range is a lot broader than TT+. If you broaden the range and add in the bubble aspect, I think it makes a push much more preferable with your AK.

[MLG]

exit,
im not sure if its accurate but its certainly an interesting way of looking at it. conceptually something bothers me about it. maybe it should be its own thread one way or another?