UFC UFN Thread

[rush66]

I think tyson v. douglas is a better comparison because tyson was beyond washed up against mcbride.

[swope]

point taken but you get my drift.

[Performify]

For anyone late to the Ortiz party, Bodog currently has a slightly better line than Pinnacle, but with their low $300 max (to win $300 so risking $2550)

[wiper]

[ QUOTE ]
Also interesting at Bodog is the Tito line has moved from -1100 last night to -800 today, and it got dropped for a little while and has now reappeared at -850.

I was beginning to wonder if something was up, but haven't seen anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

any more word on this?? i just gave my brother a heads up (he's a strictly football bettor, but always looking for a safe place to win a unit or two) to get on ortiz, and i also have about 8.5 units risked in this fight, and will probably put more as the prelims wrap up...

[wiper]

[ QUOTE ]
For anyone late to the Ortiz party, Bodog currently has a slightly better line than Pinnacle, but with their low $300 max (to win $300 so risking $2550)

[/ QUOTE ]

so even with that drastic late line change, you're still advocating putting the house on ortiz??

see, thing is, i watched the last fight, and it was ridiculous, it was ohio state against a MAC school at home, sure the line is going to be -1000, but it's a safe place to win a unit or two...

that post that was talking about the line moving from -1100 to -800 overnight put a little scare into me..

[Mac]

[ QUOTE ]

Just posted picks above because I had a bit of time to do some very preliminary research and its always worth tracking my picks even if i'm not betting on them here...


[/ QUOTE ]

please keep doing so, I love checking out your analysis.

- Mac

[rush66]

On pinnacle last night at around 1130 the line was at -831 and when I woke up this morning it was at -876. I saw it at -1100 like 3 days ago and it dropped to -771 and has been moving up ever since. By the way, can someone please post sort of a live update for this fight on here. I do not get spike tv in my area and cant watch. Unless you know another way.

[Performify]

if Shamrock were a decent fighter anymore, i'd agree. But this isn't a decent fighter versus a strong fighter.

Shammy is well beyond his prime, fighting someone who's right in the middle of his powerband, so to speak. Someone in fantastic shape, with a title fight on the line after this.

Shamrock has nothing to win here, and Tito has everything to lose. Shamrock wins just by stepping in the ring and getting his last paycheck.

Maybe this isn't super dominant that we all expect, that would be the only "possible" upset here. There's just no way Shamrock wins this fight. Maybe, maybe, maybe if Herb Dean were reffing and Ken managed to get Tito down somehow (lucky knee, etc) and jump on top, but big John is going to give Tito time even on the bottom, and Ken won't be able to put Tito away even if he was able to stun him with a lucky shot.

[Performify]

I've never seen the line at -1100. I first saw it around -750 and get bet up quickly from there.

I'm not saying it wasn't at -1100. But Pinny's software makes a lot of very quick adjustments. Maybe it opened real high, got bet down right away by people on the longshot, then got hammered back. But also it possibly opened at -750, got bet up to -1000 really quickly (Pinny's short term line adjustments move lines anytime they get max bet, usually) and then the short term adjustment wore off and it came back down to around -775.

Who knows.


But yeah, i'm still betting the house on this fight at anything under -1000 for sure. -1900 would be a fair line here and anything lower is +++EV

[Performify]

www.sherdog.com will have the best live updates of anyone.

Specifically their play-by-play thread here:
http://www.sherdog.com/news/news.asp?n_id=5831
NOTE - will contain "spoilers" as the undercard fights are already underway and assuming a couple main card fights go short, we'll see undercard fights televised....

I'll try to post some stuff but depends on how many people i've got over...