[5/10 FTP] Can I Value Bet This?

[Xhad]

9handed, hero open-raises in CO with QTo no diamond. Unknown SB 3bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop (7.5SB) T T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets, hero raises, SB calls.

Turn (5.75BB) K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets, hero raises, SB calls

River (9.75BB) K

SB checks

[somapopper]

Given the turn action, I think we can safely say CO doesn't have a flush unless it's ace high.

Here's an attempt at CO's range: aa, kk, qq, jj, ak, aq with a of daimonds, aj with a of diamonds, a10.


If he's not calling with the a kicker, it's qq (3), aa (6), jj (6), aq and aj of diamonds (2) vs. KK (1) and ak (8).

You'll always be raised if he has a K, but I think it's safe to say that an unknown is calling with at least the above hands so it's only 17 to 18, if you're calling, and the chance of him bluffing or getting out of line would indicate a value bet.


I don't think most players would check in front after hitting the king, so I don't believe we have to discount the other hands as much based on the turn action.

[CrazyIrishman]

I think you can...He has been donking the flop thusfar, so no reason to think hes going for a c/r here is there? I think we extract get another bet from AA, QQ, JJ, a weird flush, bet away.

[Allday Everyday]

I think you have played the hand well at this point.

I think you should value bet the river.

I don't play at FTP too much. But from what I've seen, I have no reason to think an unknown is check-raising here. If anything I have reason to think he isn't check-raising.

Then again, I hear a lot of PP players are moving there...

Regardless of 'site reads', I would bet the river here.

[TripleH68]

I think there is enough chance villain has AA/QQ/JJ/flush that you can valuebet. I think a lot of players will call this bet on the end with a loser.

You have to figure villain is betting a king on this river.