PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 7)

PokerFink · #1 10-24-2007, 07:10 PM

Disclaimer: My rankings are NOT a traditional power rankings. They are projective, meaning we are ranking based on where teams will finish. Rankings are done based on the playoff guidelines, meaning the division winners get the top four seeds. For a full explanation, please see this post. Also, when I list a team's NFL rank, it's based on DVOA unless otherwise noted.

[/b] 1. DALLAS (6-1) : Who's been the best rusher so far this year? Adrian Peterson? Ronnie Brown? Westbrook? Addai? All good candidates, but it might just be Marion Barber. Barber is finally getting more carries than the far inferior Julius Jones, and he's having an outstanding season. 5.7ypc, 5 touchdowns, 0 fumbles, an excellent 53% success rate and he leads the league in DPAR. Even if you add in receiving, Barber is still ahead of everyone except the injured Ronnie Brown in total DPAR. NEXT: Bye.

 2. GREEN BAY (5-1) : In the early rankings, I wrote a lot about Aaron Kampman and the outstanding Green Bay front seven. While they have been good, they haven't been as good as I expected, ranking 10th in adjusted line yards and 13th in adjusted sack rate. The secondary has surprisingly outplayed the front seven. NEXT: @ Denver.

 3. TAMPA BAY (4-3) : Last week we wondered how Tampa Bay ranked so high in offensive DVOA despite a low output of yards and points. Well, part of it is pace, which should be a familiar idea to anyone who follows basketball. The Bucs have only 71 drives, a low total for a team who hasn't had their bye week. They rank 13th in yards per drive and 16th in points per drive, both of which are better than their traditional rankings. The second part of it is the lack of turnovers - Garcia still hasn't thrown a pick all season, although the Bucs do fumble a lot. That second part haunted them this week, as Garcia fumbled at the Detroit 37 yard line and then again at the 1 yard line. NEXT: vs. Jacksonville.

 4. SEATTLE (4-3) : Getting rid of Darrell Jackson was supposed to make room for DJ Hackett, but instead he caught one ball before getting hurt in week 1 and has been out since. Instead, it's been a big year for Bobby Engram, who's caught an outstanding 68% of his passes and is 8th among wide recievers in DPAR. NEXT: Bye.

 5. NEW YORK (5-2) : Great comment from the FOX broadcasters this week: Brandon Jacobs has the second most rushing yards in NFL history for a man his size. The leader? Daunte Culpepper. Jacobs had a huge game this week, ripping off 5-7 yards seemingly every time he touched the ball for a total of 107 on just 18 carries (5.9ypc). NEXT: @ Miami.

 6. WASHINGTON (4-2) : There were two bright spots this week for Washington. One was their free agent acquisition London Fletcher, who had 13 tackles, 2 pass defenses, an interception and a touchdown. The second was that they won, which is remarkable since they were outgained by more than 200 yards. NEXT: @ New England.

 7. DETROIT (4-2) *UP 2* : Hi, I'm Mike Martz. Hi, I'm a running game. Nice to meet you running game. Kevin Jones and TJ Duckett combined for 106 yards on 19 carries (5.6ypc) while Calvin Johnson added 32 more yards on his first NFL carry. Sprinkle in some luck (Detroit recovered all three fumbles in the game) and losses by Philly and Arizona, and the Lions roared back into playoff contention. NEXT: @ Chicago.

 8. CAROLINA (4-2) *UP 2* : Quite a productive bye week for the Panthers, who moved into first place in the NFC South and might get David Carr back this week. Although it's questionable whether that second one is actually a good thing. NEXT: vs. Indianapolis.

 9. ARIZONA (3-4) *DOWN 2* : Kurt Warner returned, and while his final numbers weren't too bad (27/41 - 282 - 2 - 2), he put the Cards in a huge hole early with two interceptions. Both picks were awful throws that went directly to Skins players, and both picks led directly to Washington touchdowns and a 14-0 lead. NEXT: Bye.

 10. CHICAGO (3-4) *UP 2* : 7 of 11 completions, 97 yards, 1 minute, 43 seconds, 1 touchdown. And with that drive, Brian Griese ends the Sexy Rexy era in Chicago. Oh, how I'll miss the dragon. NEXT: vs. Detroit.

 11. PHILADELPHIA (2-4) *DOWN 3* : They have a great offensive line (when Winston Justice isn't playing). They have a great running back. They have an excellent back-up running back. They have a good-enough defense. So what's the problem? Quarterbacking (erratic) and playcalling (downright stupid). As an Eagles fan, it pains me to say it, but McNabb and Reid (and probably Mornhinweg as well) are holding this team back right now. NEXT: @ Minnesota.

 12. MINNESOTA (2-4) *DOWN 1* : To put it bluntly, Tavaris Jackson is not an NFL caliber quarterback. In college he only completed 55% of his passes, and he didn't even go to a D-I school. His quarterback rating this year is below 50. So is his completion percentage. His DPAR is significantly negative and ahead of only Trent Dilfer, Rex Grossman and Josh McCown. And it's a shame, because with a solid defense and Adrian Peterson, the Vikings could be good. NEXT: vs. Philadelphia.

 13. NEW ORLEANS (2-4) *UP 1* : Who Dat That Runs For a Touchdown? It's Pierre Thomas! Ok, seriously, who the [censored] is Pierre Thomas? NEXT: @ San Francisco.

 14. SAN FRANCISCO (2-4) *DOWN 1* : The Niners gained over 200 yards this week for - get this - just the second time all season (the other was in their week 3 loss to Pittsburgh). Even the anemic Bills offense has accomplished this four times, and they even had a game with over 300 yards. NFL average is about 330 yards per game, a number the Niners haven't gotten anywhere close to all year. NEXT: vs. New Orleans.

 15. ATLANTA (1-6) : Atlanta is already in full tanking mode, releasing veteran defensive tackle Grady Jackson this week. Jackson was the best player on their defensive line, and perhaps the best player on their entire team. When coach Bobby Petrino said, "It had nothing to do with anything but football," cornerback DeAngelo Hall responded, "They can probably cut me too... they need to cut all 53 of us." Hall might be an overrated punk, but he's right - his management is tanking the season and he knows it. NEXT: Bye.

 16. ST. LOUIS (0-7) : It took me a while, but I came up with something positive for the Rams. Punter Donnie Jones averaged 52.3 yards on his six punts this week, and has averaged 50.5 yards for the season, which ranks second in the NFL behind everyone's favorite roided punter Todd Sauerbrun. [b] NEXT: vs. Cleveland.

PokerFink · #2 10-24-2007, 07:12 PM

Poll Time

69sofine · #3 10-24-2007, 07:16 PM

cj's 2nd carry actually

mmbt0ne · #4 10-24-2007, 07:20 PM

Grady Jackson was let go because he refused to practice during the week and wouldn't follow the scheme. He got beat for being out of position as often as he made a big play. And he sued the team in the offseason. Someone needed to be made an example since docking DHall $100k didn't do it.

Franchise 60 · #5 10-24-2007, 07:21 PM

Pretty spot on stuff, good job. There isn't that much room for interpretation in the rankings imo, maybe except for the bottom half.

Out of curiosity how would you rank the top 5 regardless of division winners?

Mine would go:
1. Dallas
2. NYG
3. GB
4. Wash
5. TB

stormstarter28 · #6 10-24-2007, 07:24 PM

Why is SF a choice for worst team? Is that a joke?

lastchance · #7 10-24-2007, 07:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why is SF a choice for worst team? Is that a joke?

[/ QUOTE ]
1) MOV.
2) SOS.

PokerFink · #8 10-24-2007, 07:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why is SF a choice for worst team? Is that a joke?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's nothing funny about it. You can make a very good statistical argument that they're the worst team in the league.

PokerFink · #9 10-24-2007, 07:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity how would you rank the top 5 regardless of division winners?

[/ QUOTE ]

God that's tough. Right now, I'd put it:

1. Dallas
2. New York
3. Green Bay
4. Tampa Bay
5. Washington

Dallas is clearly #1 no matter how you slice it, but the other four are all really close. It's really more like Dallas, and then I think New York, and then a 3-way tie.

New York is playing great, but they had that slow start so they're last in DVOA. The other three are all very close in DVOA. Tampa is best in DVOA (excluding Dallas) but they've had an easy schedule and are last in Sagarin. Packers are best in Sagarin (again exc. Dallas), the others are really close and are actually 9-10-11. It's a clusterfuck.

Semtex · #10 10-24-2007, 07:44 PM

Giants take the division due to easier schedule, including games against Miami, Buffalo and New England backups. Never count on this team totally falling apart though. Dallas is a better team.

Lol at whoever thinks Carolina takes that division with that schedule.

Also, you still think the Saints are going to end up the 4th worst team in the NFC? You think they'll end up behind Carolina, because the Panthers are getting QB maestro David Carr back? They have an easier schedule than the Vikings and are a better, more rounded team. I'm not sure if they are better than the Eagles but they have an easier schedule for sure. It seems to me if you keep moving them up one spot week after week as they are beating the likes of the 49ers and the Rams while the other teams are losing you really aren't projecting anything at all.

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