PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 4)

PokerFink · #1 10-04-2007, 04:28 AM

Dear loyal readers,

I was on vacation this week and I've been busy since I got back last night, so I haven't really had time to come up with some thoughtful comments for all the teams. Plus I didn't see any games this week besides the Eagles-Giants abomination.

I figured I would post what I have so we can have some NFC discussion, and as I watch the games I have taped on DVR, I'll post more team comments later in the week.

Next week we'll be back to normal.

Disclaimer: My rankings are NOT a traditional power rankings. They are PROJECTIVE, meaning we are ranking based on where teams will finish. Rankings are done based on the playoff guidelines. For a full explanation, please see this post.

 1. DALLAS (4-0) : The Patrick Crayton 2007 Fantasy Sleeper Bandwagon finally started its engines this week, as talented receiver snagged 7 balls for 184 yards and a pair of scores. That Week 6 matchup with New England is looking more enticing by the minute. NEXT: @ Buffalo.

 2. GREEN BAY (4-0) : Congrats to Favre for breaking Marino's touchdown record, which he will enjoy for a few more years before Manning destroys it. In the preseason, I said that Favre was returning to not only break the records but return to the playoffs - so far, so good. NEXT: vs. Chicago.

 3. SEATTLE (3-1) : NEXT: @ Pittsburgh.

 4. TAMPA BAY (3-1) : NEXT: @ Indianapolis.

 5. ARIZONA (2-2) *UP 5* : Conventional wisdom at the start of the season was that San Francisco was the NFC West team ready to make the leap and challenge Seattle, not Arizona. But despite a narrow opening week loss to the Niners, the Cards have been by far the superior team. The rest of the season sets up great for Arizona - their remaining schedule is absurdly easy. The bad news is that catching Seattle will be difficult because the Seahawks own the the league's easiest remaining schedule. NEXT: @ St. Louis.

 6. WASHINGTON (2-1) : Who would have thought that a Week 5 match-up between the Skins and Lions would have huge wildcard implications? In Jason Campbell and Santana Moss, Washington has the personnel to copy half of Philadelphia's gameplan against Detroit: max-protect, play action, throw it deep. Unfortunately, Washington has no copy for the other half: give to Brian Westbrook and let him do the rest. NEXT: vs. Detroit.

 7. DETROIT (3-1) *UP 4* : NEXT: @ Washington.

 8. NEW YORK (2-2) *UP 4* : NEXT: vs. New York Jets.

 9. PHILADELPHIA (1-3) *DOWN 2* : No Brian Dawkins? No problem, as Quintin Mikell has played outstanding in relief. No Lito Sheppard? No problem, as William James has played well. No LJ Smith? No problem with rookie Brent Celek. No Brian Westbrook? No problem, Buckhalter can carry the load. No Tra Thomas? BIG, BIG problems. William Justice put forth the worst performance by an offensive lineman I have ever seen, getting absolutely eviscerated by Osi Umenyiora. Blame should fall on Reid for leaving Justice alone on Osi over and over again with miserable results. The Birds have two weeks to get healthy and remove their collective head from their collective ass to save the season. NEXT: Bye.

 10. CAROLINA (2-2) *DOWN 1* : Aaron Schatz, summing up exactly how I have felt about Carolina for several years now: "At a certain point, the public will come around to the point of view that I have, and that I think Mike (Tanier) you have too, which is 'I'm sick and tired of waiting for Carolina to fulfill their potential, (and) maybe other than Peppers and Smith they really aren’t that good'" NEXT: @ New Orleans.

 11. SAN FRANCISCO (2-2) *DOWN 3* : NEXT: vs. Baltimore.

 12. MINNESOTA (1-3) *UP 1* : NEXT: Bye.

 13. CHICAGO (1-3) *DOWN 8* : NEXT: @ Green Bay.

 14. ATLANTA (1-3) *UP 2* : NEXT: @ Tennessee.

 15. NEW ORLEANS (0-3) *DOWN 1* : NEXT: vs. Carolina.

 16. ST. LOUIS (0-4) *DOWN 1* : NEXT: vs. Arizona.

Assani Fisher · #2 10-04-2007, 04:43 AM

God what a mess it is after the top 4. Can't really disagree with anything. I do think Chicago would definitely be favored over Min, SF, CAr, and Philly on a neutral field though. But they're 1-3, so I can't blame you for having them so low.

Great call on GB before the season started btw...and horrible call on the Cowboys, but you hit some and you miss some.

PokerFink · #3 10-04-2007, 05:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I do think Chicago would definitely be favored over Min, SF, CAr, and Philly on a neutral field though. But they're 1-3, so I can't blame you for having them so low.

[/ QUOTE ]

If they're favored it's because the betting public hasn't come to grips with the fact that Chicago is just plain bad. Their offense is miserable and their defense is really banged up.

They might be better than SF, but SF is a game up at 2-2.

[ QUOTE ]
Great call on GB before the season started btw...and horrible call on the Cowboys, but you hit some and you miss some.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ain't that the truth.

What's really interesting is that the DVOA projection system completely nailed the NFC South. It predicted a huge decline for New Orleans and a huge rebound for Tampa. And everyone looked at that and went, "wtf?", but that's what happened. The moral of the story as usual: the computers are right.

Sluss · #4 10-04-2007, 07:02 AM

Some random thoughts:

The fan in me has some hope for the Bears this week as the wounded animal heading into a Green bay team that is flying high. However, the Packers are throwing the ball well and the Bears secondary is in sweat suits on the sideline and they are going to have to sign some guys off of the street just to have enough warm bodies to run a nickle.

Seattle had a big win this week. They were saved by Alex Smith going down and Trent Dilfer looking like he retired in 2005 and just figured he could pick up a pay check for a few years before anyone noticed.

Don't be so sure the Cardinals schedule finishes easy. Games @ Washington, @Tampa, @ Cincinatti (though who knows what Bengals team they will see) @ Seattle. Plus the Lions & Browns coming to town aren't right in the win column.

The Redskins/Lions will be interesting this week. What team will show up for the Redskins? Is Portis healthy? Would they be better off with a back like Betts against the Lions anyway? Will the Lions come out throwing the ball or will they look like they did for the first three quarters against the Bears second string defense? I think if it becomes a shootout it favors the Lions. If the Skins can get some turnovers and keep the score down they win.

I think the Eagles really missed Westbrook last week. They couldn't slow down the pass rush at all and screens to Westbrook would have at least made the Giants have to do something besides just run straight @ McNabb. They have not hit the defcon five that the Bears have injury wise, but they are getting close. Your right on a good bye timing.

Carolina is going nowhere without Delhomme. David Carr is not the answer and if Jake is hurt as bad as it seems I'm off of the Carolina bandwagon.

I'm still trying to figure out what is going on with Trent Dilfer. Was he just rusty or is he really just past his time of being an effective quarterback? That answer will be the begining or end of the 49ers season.

kyro · #5 10-04-2007, 08:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I do think Chicago would definitely be favored over Min, SF, CAr, and Philly on a neutral field though. But they're 1-3, so I can't blame you for having them so low.

[/ QUOTE ]

If they're favored it's because the betting public hasn't come to grips with the fact that Chicago is just plain bad. Their offense is miserable and their defense is really banged up.

They might be better than SF, but SF is a game up at 2-2.

[ QUOTE ]
Great call on GB before the season started btw...and horrible call on the Cowboys, but you hit some and you miss some.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ain't that the truth.

What's really interesting is that the DVOA projection system completely nailed the NFC South. It predicted a huge decline for New Orleans and a huge rebound for Tampa. And everyone looked at that and went, "wtf?", but that's what happened. The moral of the story as usual: the computers are right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most shocking line of Week 5...

GB -3 v. Chicago

What??????

Tyler Durden · #6 10-04-2007, 08:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Who would have thought that a Week 5 match-up between the Skins and Lions would have huge wildcard implications? In Jason Campbell and Santana Moss, Washington has the personnel to copy half of Philadelphia's gameplan against Detroit: max-protect, play action, throw it deep. Unfortunately, Washington has no copy for the other half: give to Brian Westbrook and let him do the rest. NEXT: vs. Detroit.

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks like Santana Moss will be out this week w/ a groin injury. Clinton Portis should play despite his knee sprain.

pepper123 · #7 10-04-2007, 10:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What's really interesting is that the DVOA projection system completely nailed the NFC South. It predicted a huge decline for New Orleans and a huge rebound for Tampa. And everyone looked at that and went, "wtf?", but that's what happened. The moral of the story as usual: the computers are right.

[/ QUOTE ]

no one could figure out why TB was ranked highly and everyone thought it was cause they were good a couple of years ago and then someone (Assani I think) called the computers worthless for ranking TB that highly.

good times.

Jack of Arcades · #8 10-04-2007, 10:19 AM

To be fair, even the DVOA guys were like "wtf?"

capone0 · #9 10-04-2007, 10:20 AM

Jeff Garcia is one hell of a WCO guy I guess.

Anacardo · #10 10-04-2007, 10:36 AM

More evidence of Romo greatness - single handedly defying the oracles.