Pot Odds: Money vs bets

rsarchie · #1 10-30-2007, 02:53 PM

Would it be safe to say that instead of trying to estimate chips in the pot that I could instead count bets? And if so, should bets up until the turn be counted as .5 in order to calculate pot odds? If so, can I then compare to odds on hitting a flush or straight draw to determine whether to stay in the hand?

MoonOrb · #2 10-30-2007, 03:09 PM

If you're playing LHE this is especially true. When you take a look at the hand postings in the LHE forums or read the vast majority of LHE literature, you'll see the pot size expressed in terms of bets.

You won't start calculating pot odds until the flop. If you want to think of the whole pot in terms of big bets and the bets on the flop as .5, you can do that if it's easier for you. I personally think of the pot in small bets until the turn, then big bets for the turn and river.

Don't forget, though, to consider implied odds. To decide whether a hand is worth continuing to play you'll want to keep in mind how much you can expect to win if you make your hand; not just how much is in the pot right now. So if you're on the flop and you're thinking of the pot in terms of small bets, you'll want to also be thinking about the big bets you can be winning on later streets.

rsarchie · #3 10-31-2007, 10:46 PM

Great. Thanks

Small Fry · #4 11-01-2007, 01:19 PM

MoonOrb gives some good advice but I'm confused a little on the .5 bet idea. On the turn you need to cut the pot size in half since all the pre flop and flop bets are only half the size of the turn. If thats what you meant then you're absolutely correct.

Lottery Larry · #5 11-01-2007, 01:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
MoonOrb gives some good advice but I'm confused a little on the .5 bet idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

Simple- it's basically what you think it is. He's cutting his pot size down BEFORE getting to the turn.

That might be a generally good idea for new players, to make them play tighter on the flop.

MoonOrb · #6 11-01-2007, 03:45 PM

The size of the pot doesn't change; just the way I count the number of bets in it. Up through the flop, the bets that go in the pot are small bets. So when deciding whether I have the odds to continue, I think of the pot in terms of small bets. For example, if I'm closing out the betting and there are 23 small bets in the pot and I have a clean gutshot draw and it's 2 bets to me, I know I'm getting 23:2 or 11.5:1 and I can easily make this call for the next street.

When it gets to the turn and I still have the same clean GS draw but it costs me one BB to continue, I evaluate the pot in the number of BB. By this time maybe the pot is 16 BB, so I'm still getting the odds I need to call for 1 BB.

I'm not sure how it makes me play tighter on the flop, unless you're thinking that it's because I don't consider implied odds from bets I could win on later streets. I find it really tough to try to estimate the size of the pot with 2 streets left and find this a lot more useful on the turn. But if it's close whether to call or not and I think I'll get paid with the hand I make, I'll make the call based on the immediate odds plus some amount of implied odds. I'm not really recommending this fuzzy method. It's just the way I do it rather than get bogged down with trying to calculate implied odds any time it's unclear whether to peel one bet on the flop.

Lottery Larry · #7 11-01-2007, 04:45 PM

I thought you were cutting the "true" pot odds on the flop in half, to account for the doubling of bets later. If so, that would make for fewer pot odds calls.

Never mind

HeroInBlack · #8 11-01-2007, 05:14 PM

The first poker book I read was by Ken Warren (don't read it; it's horrible), and he suggested that in a limit game, you could count bets preflop and on the flop, then after the flop action, subtract 1 (the rake) and divide by two, and now you have the pot in big bets for the turn and river action.