Bluff over obvious hand

[Bond18]

So when villain min 3 bets me pre i basically give him credit for QQ+. When A hits that greatly reduces chance of AA, and since theres no FD out i don't have to worry about him talking himself into thinking i'm pulling move. Thoughts?

Also, is this to thin pre? It seems to me i'm getting roughly 10 to 1 and he's going to stack off to a 7 almost every time.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t1775)
UTG+1 (t8137)
MP1 (t6375)
MP2 (t4125)
Hero (t4335)
CO (t4420)
Button (t7398)
SB (t4750)
BB (t3050)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t150, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1050</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls t450.

Flop: (t2475) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets t600</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t3285</font>

[EverettKings]

Sure, I'd probably do the same.

The question is, is AK part of his range. If so, we have AK (12), AA (1), KK (6), QQ (6), maybe JJ (~3), so risking 3200 to win 3200 is pretty breakeven EV wise.

If we can discount AK some, which I think we can, then its clearly +EV.


Preflop is perfectly fine in a tourney with these stacks.