25NL: Str8 Flush Draw...Right Play?

[negipai98]

Just sat down at the table and had no reads. Suited Q,T limp from MP is questionable, but with one limper already in figured I might be able to see a cheap flop. Anyway, once the flop came, do you see any ways to play this differently? Thanks in advance.

FullTiltPoker $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em

UTG+1 ($48.50)
UTG+2 ($16.10)
Hero ($24.75)
MP2 ($23.65)
CO ($18.95)
Button ($9.55)
SB ($7.35)
BB ($29.70)
UTG ($31.90)

Dealt to Hero [Qc Tc]

UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, 2 folds, BB checks

*** FLOP *** [9c Qh Kc]

BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.25, MP2 calls $1.25, 2 folds, UTG raises to $8.75, Hero raises to $24.50, and is all in, MP2 folds, UTG calls $15.75

[RapidEvolution]

If this were a raised pot (and you somehow found yourself on this flop), I like it a lot more. In a limped pot, with UTG check-raising flop, I think you're going to see KQ/JcTc/99/AcJc here a lot. If we stove vs this range, it looks like this.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

39,600 games 0.005 secs 7,920,000 games/sec

Board: 9c Kc Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.775% 44.32% 01.45% 17551 576.00 { QcTc }
Hand 1: 54.225% 52.77% 01.45% 20897 576.00 { QQ+, 99, AQs, AcJc, KQs, JTs, AQo, KQo, JTo }

I threw in overpairs and AQ for good measure (This could be a failed limp/reraise) but you're behind this range. After the checkraise (which is pretty big), I think it's safe to assume your FE is non-existent. By shoving, you're risking
$24.50 to win $28.35 so I think the push is marginally -EV if this range is evenly weighted. IMO, though, it's gonna be 2pair/straight/set/better FD more often than AQ/AK, so in theory, I'd fold.


In a game, though, I'd push because I love semi-bluff combodraws. LOL

[AlexB182]

I think this is ok but high variance. Variance is a good friend of mine though.
I agree with Rapid though, in a raised money and/or with a little bit more dead money in the pot this would be even better...

[negipai98]

Thank you for the good feedback. In case you're curious, he showed up with T,J for the flopped straight and my draw never got there. Hi variance indeed [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Thanks again.

[Johnes Benjamin]

You have zero fold equity here. He may occasionally show up with AJc but you are almost always up against 2pair+. In an unraised pot I think folding would actually be the best play in terms of immediate EV.