9/22 Movie Betting

Thremp · #1 09-18-2006, 07:27 PM

Off hand I like Jackass under and flyboys and Fearless over. Thought I'd spawn some discussion before I did real research.

rawl316 · #2 09-18-2006, 07:36 PM

i posted in the 9/8 thread. I too like jackass under, but I'm not sure about it. I've already put a unit on flyboys over 6 mil at +109.

calling all cars · #3 09-18-2006, 07:48 PM

Hell, as long as we don't have to do any research....

Jackass seems like an under to me--the first movie did 21 mil--why would this one do more? And why is under at +147?

I like Flyboys over, having no idea how many screens it will be on.

Mr.JR · #4 09-18-2006, 07:53 PM

I am unsure about both.
The original Jackass made $22.75 opening weekend when it was released in October 2002. I would lean towards the under, but I wouldn't bet on it.

For Flyboys, I don't like the over because it's a cast of unknows. I would rather take the over on All The Kings Men at 6M than Flyboys.

rawl316 · #5 09-18-2006, 07:53 PM

flyboys is on 2000. jackass is on 3000

Thremp · #6 09-18-2006, 07:58 PM

So a $3000 average and a 7k average. Fearless is on 1600 screens. Yuck I hate the over now. Looks like a 5.3k average.

hrm.

rawl316 · #7 09-18-2006, 08:02 PM

I didn't touch fearless for that reason.

MyTurn2Raise · #8 09-18-2006, 08:04 PM

FWIW-Jackass number two has a huge buzz in the college town I live in.

I've never bet this stuff so I don't know how to properly handicap that info.

Thremp · #9 09-18-2006, 08:08 PM

Actually it seems fearless should go over pretty solidly after looking at the numbers... I could see 6k-6.5k avg.

I took the Jackass under. The buzz before with a successful TV show was much much larger and it barely cleared. This has 0 date appeal hits 1 demographic and is painfully dated. A 4k-5k avg wouldn't be outlandish.

I mean SoaP sucked hard too and it was the same type of film (Small demo).

I wanna hear Utah's feelings [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

GoblinMason (Craig) · #10 09-18-2006, 08:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW-Jackass number two has a huge buzz in the college town I live in.

I've never bet this stuff so I don't know how to properly handicap that info.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, when I read your post I wondered what college town you lived in then saw who you are as I live here too, but I haven't heard much of a buzz. Personally I'm really excited to see it, but I won't make it this weekend.

Any idea how many screens the original Jackass opened on and what it was against?

-Craig