PLO200 - hard decision on the river

[antchev]

Villain is 17/9/1,5 over 100 hands, playing very solid and aggressive. I'm advertising here to vary my game, and I catch trips on the river so I check to induce a bluff by busted nut flush draw. How often does villain bluff this river with a busted nut flush draw to make this call +EV?

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $192.95
UTG+1: $145.55
CO: $78.60
Button: $83.90
SB: $39.20
HERO: $200

Pre-flop: (6 players) HERO is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">HERO raises to $7</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($15, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">HERO bets $15</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($45, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">HERO bets $45</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($135, 2 players)
HERO checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 is all-in $78.55</font>, HERO ???

[herbstl]

I am nitty and fold PF - I don't want to play J654 even ds OOP. As played bet river to prevent of beeing bluffed out of the pot - if you check you have to call getting 3:1.

[antchev]

[ QUOTE ]
I am nitty and fold PF - I don't want to play J654 even ds OOP. As played bet river to prevent of beeing bluffed out of the pot - if you check you have to call getting 3:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know this hand is marginal OOP, I want to comment the river decision only. If I bet the river, I'm called only by hands that beat me, if I check I might induce a bluff, so I think check is OK. Is call OK here?

[GAL]

To answer your original question I don't think a 1.5AF will bluff this very often.
As to your play of the hand on the river I don't like how you put him on a naked flush draw and nothing else, checking this river to induce a bet with your hand is very very thin, villan can easy have J8/J9/888 and your hands only value is that of a bluff catcher.
I would only call this river vs someone I know is capable of bluffing it, against an unknown I C/F.

[Rob121]

meh villian pretty much never has j8 or j9 here. why are you betting the turn? preflop is fine

[Chaoslord]

just c/f turn, you have no real hand and if hes solid hes probably not floating. while the rivercard seems to have improved your hand it really didnt change anything. u dont beat a straight, u dont beat a jack (KJ with spades comes to mind) i cannot see a solid player calling a potsize turn bet with just a naked flushdraw anyway so my guess here is your beat like 90%

[startrak]

It changes something, villain most likely wont bet QT now, which makes is range somewhat more bluffs. But still like just fold, and c/f turn too like chaoslord said.

Villain limped in EP so he prolly doesnt have a horrible hand and only hands that folds turn and calls flop is maybe something like T976/JT87 with spades, but even that he might not fold, cause he's gonna think you have AAxx alot of the time.

[alavet]

instafold
edit: oh ffs why you checked this and now pissing to call?
i thought you raised it like a warrior

now its really tought spot.with 1.5 af mentioned, it looks like fold. yeah, he wouldnt bluff here, look the pot size and his bet. i think he stupidly called till river with set.
so fold anyway

[antchev]

I checked to induce a bluff by busted flush draw. Actually, I called this, the guy had A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I wanted to know how often do you guys think he has the flush draw. Obviously, not too often.

[chucky]

Make a note that the guy chases with bare nut flush draw.