Not convinced KK all-in preflop up to 100BB is good idea (at $0.50NL)

[LarryLaughs]

Lets try this approach.
What kind of stats would you need to have on your opponent to fold KK pf?

I have considered it a few times against this kind of opponent:

VPIP 9%, PFR 7%, Preflop 3-bet 2%.
Level is NL50.

I mean, 3-bet 2% would be about AA/KK/AK? and not always with AK even.

So, if he 3-bets with 2% range, would you call his all-in with KK in hand? In this case he would probably have even tighter range, or the same range if his intention is to always go all in if his 3-bet is raised.

It is possible to datamine enough to get, lets say 5000 hands of several regular "rocks" in NL50 and then consider folding KK. But that would be folding against very few opponents that you know very well.

[futuredoc85]

i mean there are obv people you wouldnt want to get it in w/ for 100bbs but you would generally either just call their 3-bet rather than 4-betting. if they are extremely tight you can just call pf the first time if you have a huge sample. its generally a good idea to make sure you never play your KK in such a way that it turns into what basically amounts to a bluff preflop. (reraising planning to fold to another raise is basically bluffing.)

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
i just posted 2 from 100NL, but probably because its a pain to look for every hand someone shoved preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]
Those were examples, thanks. How many times did you run into AA? It is the relative frequency which matters. A simple SQL query should be able to find the hands that went to showdown where someone shoved preflop.

Again, you can expect wider ranges when the first raise is on the button or from the cutoff than when the first raise is in early middle position or early position (which doesn't exist in 6-max games).

If you use times when you called with hands other than KK, you have to reweight the hands probabilities based on reversing the changes to the blocking effect. For example, AA blocks half of the AQ combinations, while KK doesn't block any, so seeing someone push when you have AA counts as 2 pushes when you have KK. If you see someone push with KK when you have AA, this counts as 1/6 of a push with KK when you block 5/6 of the KK hands.

[futuredoc85]

yeah if someone who knows anything about SQL can show me what query and how to do it i will run it. the lowest level i have a decent sample of on this comp is 1/2, with maybe 20k hands of .5/1. its like 150k hands of 1/2-10/20

[Adrian20XX]

Hi,

My two cents, I'm not a great poker player yet, but I try to math-analyze everything I can, and this is what I came with, I'd like to hear oppinions.

Assuming that only you are playing against opponents that are claryvoiants and call you only with a higher pair, and that the folding equity of the rest of the hands is only the blinds (1.5BBs), the maximum stack for profitable push pre-flop with KK is 58BBs at a 9 players table and 51BBs at a 10 players table. And the EV of pushing 100BBs against this opponents is -1.05BBs at a 9 players table and -1.36BBs at a 10 players table.

So, at most the EV can be -1BB at a 9 players table, and -1.36BBs at a 10 players table. Against any players, it can be not more than this, at any table, at any stakes, never ever.

Obviously opponents are not claryvoiant (unless you are playing at AP against Potreapper). But, what hand range can end all in against KK? I will fold QQ with no problem pre-flop, and AK with no problem for 100BBs against a regular player. And for sure I will gladly bee all in with QQ or AK against a bad opponent.

For the ones interested, at the end is the calculation I did.

Regards ...

BTW, I'm looking for poker pals to discuss hands, do exercises and read stuff together, if you are interesting send me a PM.

------------------------------------------------------

First of all, I take the probabilities having a higher pocket pair from: http://wizardofodds.com/askthewizard...ies-pairs.html

Probability of Higher Pocket Pair by Number of Opponents - Larry B.'s Exact Probabilities
Pair 1 Opp. 2 Opp. 3 Opp. 4 Opp. 5 Opp. 6 Opp. 7 Opp. 8 Opp. 9 Opp.
AA 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
KK 0,49% 0,98% 1,47% 1,96% 2,44% 2,93% 3,42% 3,91% 4,39%
QQ 0,98% 1,95% 2,92% 3,88% 4,84% 5,79% 6,73% 7,67% 8,60%
JJ 1,47% 2,92% 4,36% 5,78% 7,18% 8,57% 9,93% 11,29% 12,63%
TT 1,96% 3,89% 5,78% 7,64% 9,47% 11,27% 13,04% 14,77% 16,48%
99 2,45% 4,84% 7,19% 9,47% 11,71% 13,90% 16,04% 18,13% 20,17%
88 2,94% 5,80% 8,58% 11,28% 13,91% 16,46% 18,95% 21,36% 23,71%
77 3,43% 6,74% 9,95% 13,05% 16,05% 18,95% 21,76% 24,47% 27,09%
66 3,92% 7,69% 11,31% 14,80% 18,15% 21,38% 24,48% 27,47% 30,34%
55 4,41% 8,62% 12,66% 16,52% 20,21% 23,73% 27,11% 30,35% 33,45%
44 4,90% 9,56% 13,99% 18,20% 22,21% 26,03% 29,66% 33,12% 36,40%
33 5,39% 10,48% 15,30% 19,87% 24,18% 28,26% 32,12% 35,77% 39,22%
22 5,88% 11,41% 16,61% 21,50% 26,10% 30,43% 34,50% 38,33% 41,94%

Then I calculate the equity against opponents that are claryvoiants (they know exactly your cards), and they call you with overpairs.

When you get them to fold, I assume you win only the BB and the SB.

And when you go to see a flop, you are doomed against AA and have they have 81.946% equity.

So, I calculate the EV.

EV = 1,5 * (1-p) - 81.946% * S * p + (1-81.946%) * (S+1,5) * p
EV = 1,5 * (1-p) - 81.946% * S * p + (1-81.946%) * (S+1,5) * p
EV = 1,5 - 1,5 * p - 81.946% * S * p + (1-81.946%) * S * p + (1-81.946%) * 1,5 * p
EV = 1,5 - 81.946% * 1,5 * p - (2*81.946% - 1) * S * p
EV = 1,5 - 81.946% * 1,5 * p - (2*81.946% - 1) * S * p
EV = 1,5 * (1 - p * 81.946%) - (2*81.946% - 1) * S * p

For EV to be greater than zero, we have:
1,5 * (1 - p * 81.946%) - (2*81.946% - 1) * S * p > 0
(2*81.946% - 1) * S * p < 1,5 * (1 - p * 81.946%)
S < 1,5 * (1 - p * 81.946%) / p / (2*81.946% - 1)

And I get to this table.
Maximum Stack (in BBs) for Profitable Pre Flop Push against Clairvoyant opponents that call only with Higher PP
Pair 1 Opp. 2 Opp. 3 Opp. 4 Opp. 5 Opp. 6 Opp. 7 Opp. 8 Opp. 9 Opp.
AA ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞
KK 477,20 237,64 157,78 117,86 94,29 78,20 66,72 58,12 51,55
QQ 237,64 118,47 78,48 58,58 46,58 38,62 32,96 28,69 25,38
JJ 157,78 78,48 51,92 38,69 30,77 25,47 21,72 18,87 16,66
TT 117,86 58,43 38,69 28,81 22,87 18,91 16,08 13,97 12,32
99 93,90 46,58 30,73 22,87 18,12 14,97 12,71 11,03 9,72
88 77,93 38,55 25,44 18,89 14,95 12,34 10,47 9,07 7,98
77 66,52 32,91 21,67 16,07 12,70 10,47 8,87 7,67 6,74
66 57,97 28,61 18,83 13,94 11,01 9,06 7,67 6,62 5,81
55 51,31 25,31 16,62 12,29 9,69 7,97 6,74 5,81 5,09
44 45,99 22,63 14,86 10,98 8,65 7,10 5,99 5,16 4,53
33 41,63 20,48 13,42 9,89 7,79 6,38 5,39 4,64 4,06
22 38,00 18,65 12,21 9,00 7,07 5,79 4,88 4,20 3,67


And finally, I calculate the EV of pushing pre-flop with a pocket pair.
EV (in BBs) of Pre Flop Push 100BBs against Clairvoyant opponents that call only with Higher PP
Pair 1 Opp. 2 Opp. 3 Opp. 4 Opp. 5 Opp. 6 Opp. 7 Opp. 8 Opp. 9 Opp.
AA 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50
KK 1,18 0,86 0,54 0,22 -0,09 -0,41 -0,73 -1,05 -1,36
QQ 0,86 0,23 -0,40 -1,03 -1,65 -2,27 -2,88 -3,49 -4,10
JJ 0,54 -0,40 -1,34 -2,26 -3,18 -4,08 -4,97 -5,85 -6,72
TT 0,22 -1,03 -2,26 -3,48 -4,67 -5,84 -6,99 -8,12 -9,23
99 -0,10 -1,65 -3,18 -4,67 -6,13 -7,55 -8,95 -10,31 -11,63
88 -0,41 -2,28 -4,09 -5,85 -7,56 -9,22 -10,84 -12,41 -13,94
77 -0,73 -2,89 -4,98 -7,00 -8,95 -10,84 -12,67 -14,44 -16,14
66 -1,05 -3,51 -5,87 -8,14 -10,32 -12,42 -14,44 -16,39 -18,26
55 -1,37 -4,11 -6,74 -9,26 -11,66 -13,95 -16,15 -18,26 -20,28
44 -1,69 -4,73 -7,61 -10,35 -12,96 -15,45 -17,81 -20,07 -22,20
33 -2,01 -5,32 -8,46 -11,44 -14,25 -16,90 -19,42 -21,79 -24,04
22 -2,33 -5,93 -9,32 -12,50 -15,50 -18,32 -20,97 -23,46 -25,81

[The 13th 4postle]

OP do w/e makes you comfortable...don't force yourself to make bad calls just because the math tells you too. If your intuition tells you villain would only do what he is doing with AA and it is too much of risk for you then go ahead and fold. You play your game best when you are most comfortable and obviously not folding KK in theses type of situations makes you uncomfortable.

This will lead to steaming/tilting when you do lose with it and you will lose more money which will not be counted in the all in pot with KK.

Also you seem to be a good enough player to know when these situations are and you should trust your judgment.

Also if someone re-raises me with KK I don't let it get to the three-bet/four-bet scenario because I just shove my stack against them. It will make them make bad calls with a bigger range of hands....TMO

I don't do the above in MTT's of course... Sklansky writes a good section in Tournament Play for Advanced Players where he addresses this situation for tournaments.

[Paxinor]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah if someone who knows anything about SQL can show me what query and how to do it i will run it. the lowest level i have a decent sample of on this comp is 1/2, with maybe 20k hands of .5/1. its like 150k hands of 1/2-10/20

[/ QUOTE ]

as i said in my post, i'll do it, but have to import 650k hands first...

@ intuition argument: if you go with your "intuition" where there is none possible (like guessing wether he has aces or not) it will cost you EV... even more EV than the tilting afterwards. if you tilt just because you call with a worse hand sometimes (you have to do that anyways) you shouldnt play poker

[Paxinor]

allright, i analyzed 650k full tilt poker pokerhands (about 3,5 mio distributed hands) with hold'em manager private beta.

i only focused on 4betpush situations and limp reraises of fullstack players in early position on a 6 max table:

against an unknown only 15% of all the 4betpushhands are aces. (cardremovaladjusted for Kings). so there is no no no way you can ever fold aces against an unknown if he 4betpushes you on NL50 (samplesize is 112 pushinghands)

i did another query that only analyzed full stack player early position with an preflopraise of less than 8% over 200 + hands.
only 24% of the hands were Aces that were 4betpushed fullstack. (cardremoval adjusted). (samplesize 24 pushinghands)

i also looked at limpreraised hands that were finaly pushed and the limpreraisers had less than 8% preflopraise. samplesize is 14 hands and 45% of them were aces.

conclusions: 4betpushes happen rarely from tight players and are quite loose. (instacall with KK)

limpreraises from tight players happen even less often from tight players but you are close on beeing able to fold.

there will never be a situation where you can fold Kings for 100 BB against an unknown NL50 player

even if you know he is tight, you cannot fold in most situations.

the only situation where you should at least consider a fold is against an full stack early very thight limpreraiser

but this will most likely never happen to you before you move up...