Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL

[27offsuit]

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Okay then, tell me why you don't think this will work instead of being so smart about it.

Unless she's like this undercover amazing handicapper or something.

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Jesus, have you ever seen a year-end totals by a columnist picker that isn't a loser?

I haven't.



That being the case, why don't you just fade every single columnist you come across?

Answer: Because it's stupid.








Now if you want to get into theories, let's talk about when 8 of 8 yambags in one group of columnists from the same paper ALL pick the same side.

That's called 'Fade Time', baby...

NY Post is great for this.


This is also, however, a stupid plan.

But not as stupid as yours.

[27offsuit]

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i guess i am an idiot for thinking this might work. there is a guy who writes for the new york post, dave blezow, who has had a losing record for 9 of the last 10 years or something ridiculous like that. i have seen him discussed on forums before with some degree of seriousness. obviously you have to use some discretion and line shopping, but this seems like a good way to get at BSP-style picks. it's even better in this case since women don't know anything about sports.

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I love reading Hondo tear into Blezow...


He also sucks worse on his 3 locks of the week than his whole board at a pretty consistent clip.

[MicroBob]

The original idea being partly related to BSP philosophy has some validity of course. But you could do this with almost any columnist or fan-on-the-street or BSP. That's kind of the idea of BSP to begin with.
I think that looking at what a couple of BSP-type columnists are thinking can give you ideas on where the sharp-side may be.

Taking it so far as to find a columnist who is absolutely terrible and blindly betting the opposite is pretty extreme though.

[27offsuit]

Also...


Answer: The juice. That's why.

[Dudd]

Guys, we should be encouraging this, think of the word document we'd get detailing all the times a backdoor cover went against him and all the field goal kickers that would be cursed out.

[MyTurn2Raise]

The problem is this lady likely doesn't have the intelligence to make her a BSP which, ironically, puts her above BSP status.

A BSP knows just enough about the game to make him focus on the wrong things and make the idiotic, popular pick. This old lady doesn't even key in on that.

Also, the juice will kill. Another key to BSPs is they focus on the 1 to 3 games with the highest edge. Trying to bet all 14 games in that manner will lead to games where the edge is less than the juice. Believe me, I've given an interocular examination to wagerline/yahoo/whatever consensous, team 'experts' on wagerline, etc; none give a consistent edge.

[CarlSpackler]

If you're betting every nfl game, you will almost certainly be a long term loser. The numbers for the sides/totals of most nfl games are pretty accurate, and usually not far enough off the true line to be exploited for profit.

Does anyone here think it's likely, or even possible, for the best handicapper in the world to be a long-term winner by betting every nfl game, with the same # of units on each contest?

[prk]

>Go to www.espn.com
>Go to FANTASY and click on PigSkin Pick'em from the drop menu
>Create an account
>Fill out a "card" in which you can pick each game with/without the spread
>When you are finished, click on "Who pick whom"
>Find out who all of the 300,000 nits who play it for free each week like, and fade them

I have been doing this for the past two seasons to help validate my BSP picks. Works like a charm!

[NajdorfDefense]

1) I don't remember Blezow doing that badly
2) Statistically, someone will run 9 of 10
3) There's still vig
4) He could start to run hot: http://www.nypost.com/seven/02022007...zow.htm?page=2
Colts 34, Bears 23

Eventually, he will revert to the mean [close to 50%].

Using him is provably inferior over the short-run to using the BSP picks here the past 3 years.

[NajdorfDefense]

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Coin Flips = 50/50% shot.

Your vig: likely -110.

50% <<< 52.4%.

DUCY?

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FLAWLESS VICTORY.

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Idiots, you are failing to take into account TRAP GAMES.

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True, I did ignore the 3-4 trap games a year. Make sure you know ahead of time which ones they are, then do the opposite of her.