Week 12 NCAA Early Lines Thread

[CardSharpCook]

yeah, I think even ND fans are realizing ND is not worth betting on. Well set line this week on ND for once.

[iggymcfly]

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Just a little ND/Duke ramble.

This is a really bad match up for Duke imo. Duke moves the ball almost exclusively through the air, where Notre Dame's defense is the strongest (I realize this is partially because teams run all over them and don't have to throw much). In addition, Duke's defense is near Navy level bad (not quite that bad,, but bad nonetheless). Notre Dame can and will score points. DOn't think I would take either team, maybe the over when it comes out.

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Yeah, I agree with all this. On the other side of the ball, Duke's pass defense is worse than their run defense too and ND's a little more of a passing team. I actually think a fair line here is probably 6 or 6.5.

[iggymcfly]

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Can anyone explain why Arkansas is now favored by 10 against Miss. St? Croom and Co. have beat UK on the road (granted we played about the worst we possibly could have) and just beat Bama. Arkansas is an average team at best, despite having McFadden. I was thinking this line would be around Arkansas -3. What am I missing?

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You're just looking at wins and losses where MSU's got the same record as Arkansas against a slightly better schedule and assuming they're even. If you look at the margins of victory though, Arkansas's been way better. Sagarin predictor has Arkansas favored by 13 at home. Also, on the matchups side of things, MSU has a pretty vulnerable rush defense: 59th in the country.

[KUJustin]

Not sure if this makes it worth betting, but Kansas will be calling off the dogs early this week if they're able.

A lot of our guys are banged up. Our (Heisman hopeful?) QB, Reesing, was limping around the whole 2nd half this week. The best player on our defense, DT Mclinton, was also clearly banged up along with some other folks. The game next week vs Mizzou is probably our biggest game in almost 40 years. As soon as the game is secured the starters will be coming out.

On the other hand, I imagine KU could cover -26 against that ISU team without trying very hard.

[iggymcfly]

That's a good point. Kansas is in a great spot for a letdown playing the 2nd worst team in the Big XII the week before such a huge game. The only thing that would make it a little better is if they were playing on the road, but I still think it's worth at least a TD. Also, Iowa State's been playing much better toward the end of the season, beating Kansas State and Colorado the last two weeks. I think this is a great spot to take ISU +26.

[Jazzy3113]

Any comments on Oregon -12

[Ichabod1985]

UNC +10 1 Unit
NC ST +6 1 Unit
Kentucky +8 1 Unit
Arkansas -10 1 Unit
Oregon -12.5 1 Unit

[iggymcfly]

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Any comments on Oregon -12

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Yes, I absolutely love Oregon there. Sagarin - TO margin*4 had Oregon favored by 16.5 and I don't see any matchup edge, injury, or motivational situation to make me think that's off at all. I think the public still doesn't realize quite how good Oregon is and as a result is afraid to give them as many points as they truly deserve.

[pirateboy]

Iggy,

I've been toying with including TO margin in my handicapping lines. What kind of equation are you using for it?

[bills217]

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Any comments on Oregon -12

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I am fairly shocked to see it that low.