Scary river...fold the set?

bills217 · #1 05-31-2007, 05:05 PM

No reads on villain.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($201.70)
UTG ($91.45)
MP ($201.45)
CO ($276.70)
Button ($171)
Hero ($218.55)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to $7, 2 folds, Hero calls $6, 1 fold.

Flop: ($16) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $12, Hero calls $12.

Turn: ($40) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $24, Hero raises to $68, MP calls $44.

River: ($176) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $114.45 (All-In), Hero...

Hard to put villain on a flush, but the straight and bigger sets seem like possibilities...of course, so is AK and other two pairs...?

tuuufts · #2 05-31-2007, 05:10 PM

I think I'd make a blocking bet on the river, other than that tough hand. You really need reads in this spot. Maybe make a bigger cr on the turn or even shove?

dirtytricks · #3 05-31-2007, 05:16 PM

I think you have to raise turn bigger since there are so many scare cards to come.

I push this river, he might call with A10, AK, AJ.

Now it is a fold I think since he checks those hands behind.

DawnToDusk · #4 05-31-2007, 05:17 PM

Why such a small raise on the turn? Your vill has 3-to-1 on the turn call and there aren't very many cards that you want to see. Either they make it very difficult for you to play your hand on the river (as you can see) or it kills your action. I think a larger raise is called for. But anyways you want to know about the river.

Without a read I don't like calling here. I think in this spot we need to know that our vill can shove here as a bluff, especially if his shoving range is very wide. In that case I think we have more of a case for a call. On the river in this spot we are getting like 2.6-to-1/2.7-to-1 (rough guess) and I think we need to compare it to how often he is bluffing. Since we don't know it makes it hard so we should think about what hands he could have and how many we beat out of that range. Compare it to the pot odds we are being offered and based off of that call or fold. In this case I think you can fold here. But that is just me without a read.

Hince · #5 05-31-2007, 05:19 PM

If you are calling this river, I think you should just shove the river yourself. It's very difficult to put you on a straight or a flush given the turn play, and a shove looks very confusing. You will get called by 2 pair a lot in this spot.

I think a blocking bet is really gay in this spot. If he shoves, you are probably beat. If you are having problems folding here, I really doubt you fold getting ~ 4:1.

So... I think the best play is to either shove the river, or c/f. Given that you checked, I guess that makes this a fold.

Casper05 · #6 05-31-2007, 05:22 PM

raise the flop a lot, but definitely raise more on the turn. fold the river.

Who folds PF? (I know, gross blah blah- and I never do- but an earlier thread confused me)

DawnToDusk · #7 05-31-2007, 05:24 PM

Id call this just with the thought of set mining. Once I get stats on him and if I knew his PF raising range was a lot wider then I fold this PF.

tuuufts · #8 05-31-2007, 05:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you are calling this river, I think you should just shove the river yourself. It's very difficult to put you on a straight or a flush given the turn play, and a shove looks very confusing. You will get called by 2 pair a lot in this spot.

I think a blocking bet is really gay in this spot. If he shoves, you are probably beat. If you are having problems folding here, I really doubt you fold getting ~ 4:1.

So... I think the best play is to either shove the river, or c/f. Given that you checked, I guess that makes this a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't the point of a blocking bet to fold to a raise?

dirtytricks · #9 05-31-2007, 05:28 PM

I hope everyone agrees that pushing is WAY BETTER than check/calling.

And blocking is meaningless with so little left.

DawnToDusk · #10 05-31-2007, 05:32 PM

No. We block so in the future when we have marginal hands on the turn and river that we think have some showdown value the vill checks behind or calls his other hands as opposed if he were to bet it would make it difficult for us to continue with our marginal hand.

If we make a "blocking bet" and he raises what exactly have we blocked?