POTW college football

[iggymcfly]

Of those games you listed, I really like Oregon -12. I bet about 70% dogs, but I still really like the Ducks this week. Arizona's being given more credit than they deserve because of their 3-4 conference record when if you include MOV and their non-conference games, they're actually the 2nd worst team in the Pac-Ten. This should be similar to the Stanford game Oregon won by 24 or the Washington game that UO won by 21.

[Happydaz]

Iggy, I'm betting Oregon, but I gotta say as a Duck fan this is the most dangerous game remaining on Oregon's schedule. Our defense likes to give up big passing plays and Arizona's qb is a pretty decent passer. As to the Stanford and Washington games ... you actually saw those games, right? The one where Stanford led in the second quarter, and the one where Washington matched the Ducks score for score until the 4th? It would have been very, very easy to Oregon to fail to cover in either of those two games. That said, Oregon's beat the spread this season every single game except Cal, and I think the Ducks win by more than 12 more often than not here.

(If I could stomach betting against my own team, I would parlay the Arizona ML with the over, as I think that's the only way Arizona ever wins here.)

[NajdorfDefense]

at -11 and falling the Ducks must be even better value!

edit: no opinion, but I'll take +12 while it lasts since something is def moving the lines.

[rush66]

Exactly Naj,

I love my zona +12.

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]
Iggy, I'm betting Oregon, but I gotta say as a Duck fan this is the most dangerous game remaining on Oregon's schedule. Our defense likes to give up big passing plays and Arizona's qb is a pretty decent passer. As to the Stanford and Washington games ... you actually saw those games, right? The one where Stanford led in the second quarter, and the one where Washington matched the Ducks score for score until the 4th? It would have been very, very easy to Oregon to fail to cover in either of those two games. That said, Oregon's beat the spread this season every single game except Cal, and I think the Ducks win by more than 12 more often than not here.

(If I could stomach betting against my own team, I would parlay the Arizona ML with the over, as I think that's the only way Arizona ever wins here.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the Oregon/Stanford game wasn't on TV anywhere except Eugene. I remember because Oregon was one of my larger bets that week and I was trying to follow the score on GameCast while I watched a movie.

Still though, wasn't the general story of the game "Oregon lets down after getting an early lead on the road, then blows Stanford away in the 2nd half when they realize they could be in danger of losing? That was the week before the Cal game too and I think that motivation was a definite issue.

The Arizona game is on national television, coming off a bye, and I think the Ducks should absolutely be motivated to give 100% effort.

With all that said, this line isn't moving on air, and it doesn't appear to be moving on public money either. I feel way less confident about Oregon covering 11 with this line movement than I would about them covering 14 if that had been the opener and had held all week.

[Witzo]

Shouldn't Kent be better then Pick against Temple. Take away 3 points for being a road team and I would think Kent should still be at least a FG favorite.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
Shouldn't Kent be better then Pick against Temple. Take away 3 points for being a road team and I would think Kent should still be at least a FG favorite

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? They are both 3-7 overall against similar schedules and Temple is 3-3 in conference vs 1-5 for Kent.

FYI- line opened Kent -2.5 and has been bet down all week.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
Why aren't you guys on Missouri? They have been playing well the last few weeks and K State is terrible. Just look at the Nebraksa game. K-State has played good at home, but the only good game they played at home was Kansas. While Missouri is 3-0 Ats on the road this year. I know that there is a possible look ahead to Kansas, but i don't think this will happen because they can't drop a game if they want to get into the Big 12 chapionship game.




[/ QUOTE ]

KSt is not good but they are not terrible either and I would expect them to play hard this week at home after being embarassed last week at Nebraska. Kinda like how Nebraska played hard at home last week after being embarassed at Kansas the previous week.

Add in the possible Missouri look ahead factor and I'll pass on laying over a TD on the road. Missouri in a close one imo.

[Happydaz]

Oh, yeah, I sometimes forget how horrible the PAC-10's TV deals are. You're right about the overall feel of the Stanford game ... was probably just a trap game for them.

About Oregon's effort: They are definitely prepared for this game. I'm not worried about them looking past Arizona. Last year's loss at Autzen was awful and I guarantee every single player remembers it. I was listening to Bellotti on the air this week and it seemed he had really imparted his players with a sense of what this game meant.

As to the line movement: I don't think the books have any idea how to handicap Oregon's games this season. The fact that the team is 8-1 ATS this year is evidence of that (yes, they've wildly outperformed expectations but shouldn't the lines have started reflecting this by the time of the Washington State game, at least?) So I'm not worried about the line shift at all.

[rush66]

I don't see how Oregon is gonna be anymore motivated for this game than Arizona. Arizona has everything to gain and Oregon has everything to lose. How many times have we seen this same scenario play out this year? Its at Arizona, they are on national tv for the first time in how ever long. Both are coming off byes. Motivation can not be used as a factor in betting any team in this game. Honestly, I see this game something like 42-31. Furthermore, with several of the points you brought up, a late back door cover does not seem unlikely here.