Expensive J10s

[pohuist]

This hand was hotly debated by my friends so any input is greatly appreciated. The hero's play was highly situational so sorry for the long descriptions and if decisions are obvious.

20-40 live 10 handed. The hero is playing for a while and is confident about his reads.
A mediocre player (MD) open limps in UTG+1. A Royal Fish (RF) raises in UTG+2. RF plays 80% of his hands, raises light, like to lead at the flop with nothing and never folds any street he put money in but re-raises only with stone cold nuts. A tough player (TP) 3 bets in UTG+3. TP is a TAG fully capable of making plays at the pot and isolation raises. It is folded around to SB, a lagtard, who calls. The hero peeks at J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in BB and notices MD having 2 bets ready for a call. Since RF is unlikley to cap the pot will have 13 bets and its 2 bets to hero.

1) Call or fold?

Hero calls as does everybody else. The flop is K-7-5r with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. This is actually a good card for hero b/c AKs is a common 3 betting hand and TP cannot have A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], so the b/d flush, if it comes, should be good. Hero has b/d flush draw and 3 ways to make a nut b/d straight and either Q ot 9 on the turn will give him a double belly buster (8 outs) to nuts.
RF donks, TP calls, SB calls, the MD is ready to fold. The pot has 18 SB and its one more to hero to close the betting.

2) Call or fold?

Hero calls, MD folds.
The turn is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. RF donks TP raises SB folds. The pot is 12.5 bets and its 2 more to hero. RF will call any raises and re-raises.

3) Call or raise.

Thanks

[ProfessorBen]

Call, Call, Call.

[alphanumerics]

man, this is tough... but i probably fold, fold, and seens as youve stuck with it this far, id probably waste a lil more money and call, praying for the best... youre just wishing wayyyyyy to light here, IMO... but hey, i havent played a hand of hold em from Feb 18th to May 26th, and only one night of omaha8 for a birthday trip... so maybe im coming back a lil tight...

[gaming_mouse]

You seem like a smart, thinking player.

I think you should stop using the phrase "belly buster."

[gameoverjc]

post these HH's without your reasoning attached to each decision/street, if you want to get diff sides of input instead of people just reassuring what you already think.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
post these HH's without your reasoning attached to each decision/street, if you want to get diff sides of input instead of people just reassuring what you already think.

[/ QUOTE ]

ummmm... no, don't do that.

[pohuist]

The reasoning was given to me by the hero when I asked why he called. I am asking if his reasoning is sound in your view. I have my own opinion but maybe my way of counting odds is off.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
The reasoning was given to me by the hero when I asked why he called. I am asking if his reasoning is sound in your view. I have my own opinion but maybe my way of counting odds is off.

[/ QUOTE ]

PF and flop are both calls. standard play on turn is to call but that doesn't mean raising is wrong in this specific spot.

[daryn]

call. and again, and again.

[goofball]

Perfect so far (callx3, that is), now all that's left is to bang off the Ac on the river.