(NL10) 3-bet pot, nut FD + overs

BotOnTilt · #1 10-13-2007, 02:28 PM

(Moved down a level to clear a reload bonus. Its funny how the games seem so easy after playing a bit higher - even though I wasn't even all that comfy playing NL10 a few weeks ago.)

Villain was almost unknown at the time of the hand. He seemed tight and didn't do anything out of line and seemed to play fine. He played few pots, I would say vpip would be 10-20.

I'm second guessing my line, and wanted to know what you guys would have done in this spot.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 ($9.85)
MP2 ($9.99)
Hero ($10)
CO ($10.54)
Button ($1.99)
SB ($1.90)
BB ($12.64)
UTG ($20.67)
UTG+1 ($9.55)
UTG+2 ($20.62)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.10, 2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.5, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.5, 4 folds, MP1 calls $1.

Flop: ($3.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 bets $1.6, Hero bets $10 (All-In)

Chargers In 07 · #2 10-13-2007, 02:41 PM

Standard. Raising to $6 makes no sense since you'll only have $2.50 left on the turn, just shove it now.

CaptVimes · #3 10-13-2007, 03:35 PM

Yeah, good shove. With his weak bet you might actually have some fold equity too.

Mike Kelley · #4 10-13-2007, 03:36 PM

mikey likey

rachkane · #5 10-13-2007, 03:43 PM

Yup, shove it. Nice move.

TheBad · #6 10-13-2007, 03:56 PM

What is so wrong in calling ? Even if i put Villain on QTo it´s a coinflip, and if he has a set he should do the betting while we are behind, right ?

BotOnTilt · #7 10-13-2007, 06:25 PM

What got me thinking was that Poker stove only gives me 50% equity against JJ+ AQ+, and I don't think he can do pre flop with much more. Of course we get more than 50% (2:1) since there is money in the pot. With JJ he might not even bet flop and with KK/AA he'd probably 3-bet pre-flop so this might narrow his range further. I guess I can make him fold AQ and maybe even KK (if he'd cold call with it) by pushing.

Then again calling makes it weird on a blank turn since we are commited. As Chargers In 07 said a smaller bet would be pointless. As CaptVimes said we have fold equity, which I like very much since I have ace-high.

Results:
He insta called with top set, I sucked out and he nagged about it for a long time. I should suck out more often, its extremely fun.

VegasRunner · #8 10-13-2007, 06:51 PM

THANK YOU FOR PLAYING THIS HAND CORRECTLY!!!

It makes me so angry when people refuse to shove here because "it might be a coinflip."

Yes, it might be a coinflip, but ONLY IF HE CALLS. The value in the shove is that you win by making the other guy fold a hand that you'd have to outdraw to beat--in this case, pocket pairs and any queen.

If you were to make the boneheaded call here, think about the likely outcomes:

Outcome 1: A diamond falls. The villian sees it and he gets scared and your action dries up.

Outcome 2: An ace or a king falls. The villian sees it and gets scared and your action dries up. (Unless the ace gives him two pair--in which case you lose a bundle.)

Outcome 3: You blow a bunch of money by chasing a draw that doesn't come.

There is no draw you can catch that won't scare the villian. The shove is the right play 100%. Yes, you might run into a set, but that's the worse case scenerio and you are still over 30% to win the hand.

Don't let anyone try to convince you to play this hand slowly.

SHOVE!!

Chargers In 07 · #9 10-13-2007, 07:00 PM

Up against QQ+/AQ you're 41.526% to win. If you push this will net you $.-19. Factor in any kind of fold equity and crappy hands like KQs/QJs at times then this is a very +ev push.

BotOnTilt · #10 10-15-2007, 03:12 AM

VegasRunner, thanks. Those are some very good points and I have to agree now that shoving is the only option. I didn't really even consider that any of the cards that help me also kill my action if I'm ahead. Although I did hate the thought of calling, since I'd still be so commited and wouldn't want to stack off or fold a blank turn.

I was worried that if villains range from PF is mostly AQ+, KQs, JJ/QQ then he'd fold anything except the set for my push (since I figured pf might get him to think I have KK+) and I think Stove only gave me 25% equity against the set.