Average Speed XVII Game Thread - Page 277

fnord_too · #**2761** 08-07-2007, 01:29 PM

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also, your argument for why we should lynch Fmx is because no self respecting wolves would have kept him alive, and that because he is afk he needs to die?

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no, my argument for him is that I can't come up with a better argument for someone else right now, and I think he should go because it is easier to be afk as a wolf and keep from being lynched than to mix it up and keep from being lynched. The self respecting bit was a jab at the wolves for keeping an afk player alive if he is a villager, if he is a wolf not much they could do about it.

I also hate to admit it, but right now I am thinking a bit of who it would hurt less to lose to, and losing to an afk player stings a lot more than losing to someone who still looked village after posting a lot.

DustinG · #**2762** 08-07-2007, 01:31 PM

if one wolf were voting for Fmx on D1 thats one thing, but when 3 wolves vote for fellow wolf Fmx, when two of them would have been better off throwing Kbar under, that means something.

GT1T made himself look suspicious by not talking about Kbar at all, so he could try and fps by pushing another wolf?

fnord_too · #**2763** 08-07-2007, 01:34 PM

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if one wolf were voting for Fmx on D1 thats one thing, but when 3 wolves vote for fellow wolf Fmx, when two of them would have been better off throwing Kbar under, that means something.

GT1T made himself look suspicious by not talking about Kbar at all, so he could try and fps by pushing another wolf?

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I need to look at that wagon then. There is something in particular I want to look for, until then
unvote

fmxda · #**2764** 08-07-2007, 01:56 PM

I'll post as I read:

I read the long weekend day with an open mind, without focusing on my wolf suspects (who were nich, clown and fnord) because two of them turned up village from the little I read today.

I felt as though supine was kinda beating the fact that he liked eskimo as a wolf into your heads that night. Please reread those last few hours of Sunday.

At first supine waffles and claims to reread everybody. He comes up with eskimo, clown and nich, and pretty much ignores fish and fnord.

Then he says he could vote either eskimo or nich, even saying he will go nich first; a short while later he says fnord and eskimo are his real suspects.

Supine's rationale from going from nichp to eskimo is LC and fnord talking about pirates, and thusly not wanting to go nich. LC then RETRACTS his statement, leaving an explanation by fnord which shouldn't push supine in either direction, IMO.

Even though his publicly stated case against eskimo is simply that his voting record was wolfy and his tone was off (ignoring dustin and LC who know that eskimo always sounds wolfy), supine ZEROES in on eskimo crazily, ignoring the 5 obviously viable (IMO) suspects he should have after his brief reread.

It's to the point that he refuses to change his vote, and only grudgingly votes nich even though he likes eskimo tons better, despite having had nich as a top suspect earlier as underlined (with no new evidence of any type brought up).

It's hilarious to see Scott and Dustin clear supine for the subsequent eskimo nightkill. There's no way that this kill is +EV for the wolves on level 1. No way.

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I just noticed that supine (and a bunch of other people) are lumping fnord and fishmonger together, probably because of their afkness early on. If there is one wolf among them, I predict that the wolves will like to talk about one being wolfy, but vote the other when it comes down to it.

It seems that fish and fnord are interchangable in lots of peoples minds and this is a scenario where you say one thing and do another without drawing much attention.

fmxda · #**2765** 08-07-2007, 02:02 PM

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I think scott/fnord/supine contains the wolves.

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Great list by LC imo.

Fishmonger is pushing me retardedly hard, like he's faking a seer peek or something. I'm not sure if a desperate wolf would do that. I'll have to reread fish and see when he started this hard-on for me, and maybe I can see if he's more a wolf or villager for that.

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I don't want to lynch fnord.

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Working off the tentative theory I have that fnord/supine is the wolf team, this is a juicy quote from a post where he does process of elimination and gives reasons that everyone besides clown/fish are villagers. Fnord doesn't get a reason though. HMMMM

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Bojtun, dustin and scott have been my surest villagers all game. I hate it if one of you are a wolf.

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From the same post by supine, if supine turns up wolf, I think he hemorrhaged these as villagers.

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Supine is my number one villager read

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Really, I'm less than convinced.

I'm liking my vote right now after his first post.

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and wtf wouldnt kbar just agree with this or not say anything if supine is a wolf?

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YES Dustin, kbar easily could. This is cast-suspicion-on-your-partners-so-you-can-vote-them-later-and-look-good 101.

DustinG · #**2766** 08-07-2007, 02:02 PM

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At first supine waffles and claims to reread everybody. He comes up with eskimo, clown and nich, and pretty much ignores fish and fnord.

Then he says he could vote either eskimo or nich, even saying he will go nich first; a short while later he says fnord and eskimo are his real suspects.

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I agree that a lot of Supine's actions have been wolfy. But his tone hasn't been at all and a lot of posts I dont see a newbie wolf making. IDK. If it comes down to it between Scott/Supine, have fun, but vote Scott, i think.

DustinG · #**2767** 08-07-2007, 02:10 PM

actually there have been a few wolfy toned posts that I try and forget about

i will reread supine before the end of the day

but I think going fnord/fish or fish/fnord is right, even if supine is the last wolf. Regardless, one of me/you/boj will be around at the end to figure it out and I have faith in you both

fmxda · #**2768** 08-07-2007, 02:14 PM

supine once again has only one wolf suspect as he zooms in on clown around 5pm yesterday.

supine's interactions with dustin seem to incriminate him more, also that post where he breaks down one, JUST ONE of gt1t's early lists is wolfy to me. But at this point I think some of it may be blinders because I am convinced I will be pushing supine very hard.

Thoughts about me: Scott, bojtun, LC and Dustin talk about my absence a lot, I feel that the last three (well, I know LC is) are villagers, I will clear Scott a little for that.

Scott is one of those players I still feel a little uncomfortable about.

My wolflist after the read:
supine - 90% wolf
fnord - 65% wolf
fish - 20%
scotth - 10% wolf
5% of chance of boj or dustin

bojtun · #**2769** 08-07-2007, 02:16 PM

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That's suprising, but I agree with Scott that the wolves did us a favor.

I fully expected to see Dustin dead today but was praying it was me.

First thought, Scott and Supine become even more clear. Why would Scott and Supine make a push for Eskimo (villager) when Nich (villager) was already on the hook?

If it's a leveling exercise, n1?

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This could turn out to be the dumbest post in the entire game.

fmxda · #**2770** 08-07-2007, 02:20 PM

Deciding between fnord and fish is a little bit of a crapshoot for me.

I liked fnord better early on because he was playing classic wolf-fnord. Also, I believe that supine hemorrhaged fnord as his partner to some degree; I will reread supine's entire posting history for more things that will help me decide fnord vs fish.

The main piece of evidence against fish is that he has pushed me like crazy. But I havent played with fish enough (maybe at all?) to have player specific reads on him. Using general reads I might lean villager ever so slightly.