NL50: TP2K, interesting one pair hand in unraised pot.

[funneldave]

Not that I am any kind of expert but I feel you got a little lucky here. Fair enough your sample size on him is small, but when he pots it into so many players on the flop, you just calling doesnt get you any information. When he pots it again (and has an AF of 0.7) I dont think I would be able to raise with any certainty of being good.
I would have probably limped pre flop, raised the flop and let it go to a trun bet, but maybe I give poeple too much credit?

[GiantBuddha]

Well, if he's really that FPSy, he's probably checking his big hands and leading his weaker ones. He certainly could have a set, but it seems more likely that this particular player would go for a check/raise with it.

Way to go with a read. Of course if he shows up with two pair here, you feel absolutely ridiculous [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[AlexB182]

Good we have a discussion now! As mentionend before, I was about to fold on the turn. But then I thought about it again:
as mentionend in my OP, villain is rather tricky. We're taking this flop 7(!) handed so would he be betting trips in this spot with only a FD being a threat to him? Wouldn't be his default line to check with the intention of raising when somebody else bets? Would he be betting a FD into 6 players and risking to get raised in case anyone elsed flopped trips? He can't have AK here IMO cause he would have raised that PF.
I think the key to this hand is his betting size: you rarely see people betting pot size with sets into several players, especially not if they tend to have some kind of FPS. Furthermore, his turn bet made me even more suspicious. His flop bet completely denied odds for any opponent to draw to a flush. Now the flush card did not come, why is he betting pot again? Most of the players, especially at NL50 do not bet pot here if they really have a hand like a set of 8s here. So, as my time bank ran down I thought about that and my thinking was that the hand that would fit best to his line here was something like KT or KJ, a weak top pair hand that he could think was best but that he wanted to protect as much as possible. The three on the turn was of course not scary to me at all and as I had a pretty good feeling my read was correct I pushed (or virtually put him AI). I think this just is a good example that we sometimes really have to think about a hand more than just, oh well he bets out twice so he has to have a set stuff.
Of course I admit that I could have been wrong here but I don't think I got lucky here, this was rather one of the few good decisions I made during this session.

[funneldave]

I think the way you have highlighted the thought process is fine, dont disagree with it. From my limited experience this felt more like two pair than aything else and my only concern with how it played out was the call on the flop didnt really allow you to find out any more about where you were unless you had a solid read. Fair play for getting the max value out of this though.

[RapidEvolution]

I still think 22/88 plays this way. With this many players in, it's likely that 1 or 2 people are on the FD and risking giving the free card is bad, especially given that the flop bet will get called by at least one person (and sometimes 2-3). If you're that sure he's on K-low, why not just call and let him fire on the river? That's such an awful call on his part.

[AlexB182]

Because I'm pretty sure he can't get away from his top pair hand at this point so no need to give him a free card to make some stupid two pair.

[RapidEvolution]

I guess if you have the read that he'll call with KJ, it's fine to shove.