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  #71  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:53 PM
PsYcOsNiPeR PsYcOsNiPeR is offline
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Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

Hmm, I live in Venice, about 15 miles south of Sarasota.
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  #72  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:55 PM
Lord_Strife Lord_Strife is offline
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Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, I live in Venice, about 15 miles south of Sarasota.

[/ QUOTE ]

I grew up in Punta Gorda and went to USF for school so I kinda ended up here for living
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  #73  
Old 11-29-2007, 05:35 PM
Nate. Nate. is offline
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Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

Strife--

Can I assume you still think you're >90% to succeed?

--Nate
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  #74  
Old 11-29-2007, 07:35 PM
Lord_Strife Lord_Strife is offline
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Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

I think 50% to succeed sounds about correct for one session of all of them. I actually decided not to play all of them today because I'm going to the brick and mortar casino shortly.. however I am 4/9 at a final table right now and 10/19 in the other one i'm playing.
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  #75  
Old 11-30-2007, 03:00 PM
ssnyc ssnyc is offline
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Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

well? done? update?
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  #76  
Old 11-30-2007, 03:25 PM
Perplexity Perplexity is offline
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Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

[ QUOTE ]
I think 50% to succeed sounds about correct for one session of all of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering that you've won exactly 1 out of the 208 4/180s you've played, a reasonable guess for the number you'd have to play to have a 50% chance of winning 1 is about 144. Quite a session.
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  #77  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:17 PM
Sherman Sherman is offline
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Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think 50% to succeed sounds about correct for one session of all of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering that you've won exactly 1 out of the 208 4/180s you've played, a reasonable guess for the number you'd have to play to have a 50% chance of winning 1 is about 144. Quite a session.

[/ QUOTE ]

That can't be right at all IMO. If OP has a clue what he is doing, he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90 or less 180s.

Look, if the MTT was a lottery he would win 1 in 180 on average. So if he was playing based on pure luck alone he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90. Because OP posts on 2+2 alone makes him a much bigger favorite than that to win one.

I'd say he is at least 50% to win 1 in 60 and close to 100% (on average) to win 1 in 120.

Sherman
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  #78  
Old 11-30-2007, 06:16 PM
Perplexity Perplexity is offline
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Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Considering that you've won exactly 1 out of the 208 4/180s you've played, a reasonable guess for the number you'd have to play to have a 50% chance of winning 1 is about 144. Quite a session.

[/ QUOTE ]

That can't be right at all IMO. If OP has a clue what he is doing, he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90 or less 180s.

Look, if the MTT was a lottery he would win 1 in 180 on average. So if he was playing based on pure luck alone he ought to be 50% to win 1 in 90. Because OP posts on 2+2 alone makes him a much bigger favorite than that to win one.

I'd say he is at least 50% to win 1 in 60 and close to 100% (on average) to win 1 in 120.

Sherman

[/ QUOTE ]

I was basing my calculation on his actual record in 4/180s (1 win in 208 attempts).

I agree that it's entirely possible -- even likely -- that his actual chance of winning is better than 1/208.

If his chance to win was 1/180, he would be 50% to win at least 1 if he played 125. *NOT* 90, as you suggested.
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  #79  
Old 11-30-2007, 06:25 PM
Perplexity Perplexity is offline
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Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say he is at least 50% to win 1 in 60

[/ QUOTE ]

To be 50% to win 1 (or more) out of 60, you have to win 1.15% of the time. That's a little bit over 2 out of 180.
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  #80  
Old 11-30-2007, 06:30 PM
Sherman Sherman is offline
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Default Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

Forgive me, but this makes no sense to me.

The probabilities ought to be additive.

That is, if his chance of winning a single 180-person MTT is 1/180, he chances of winning 1 of 2 180-person MTTs ought to be 2/180. And so forth. So his probability of winning 1 180 person tournament given 90 tournaments ought to be exactly 90/180 or 50%. Please explain how I am wrong.

Sherman

PS - FWIW, I know what you were doing by using his current data, I am just pointing out that unless he is a losing player (which he probably isn't) or is trying to lose, his probability of winning a single 180 tournament is surely better than 1 out of 200+.
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