10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr

[TxRedMan]

Villain is a Bellagio regular, Jay. I'd never played with him before but had been on his left for about three hours when this hand occured. I haven't been out of line and neither has he. The only hand I've shown down in a big pot was the NF on an a-high paired board against an EP raiser where the a-3-3 flop was checked around and I just called his turn bet when I made my hand and value-bet the blank river when it was checked to me.

We're seven handed when this hand takes place, and I noticed that he had switched gears and was playing a little faster than earlier.


He limps UTG (i thought he was in the BB) and I raise QQ to $100 UTG+1. Folds back to him and he raises to $400. He has about $1700 behind after the raise and I cover. I call.


Flop

10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]


He shoves $1700 into $800.


A couple of things; I'm sure he thinks I wont flat call with AA or KK pf very often, so he probably assumes I have TT-AK. After a few hours of play and a little discussion he probably assumes I'm capable of folding a big hand. In live poker huge overbets are more often a nut hand than a bluff, but he seemed capable of putting me on QQ-JJ and expecting me to lay it down to this board/action.


Thoughts on preflop appreciated, as well as the flop decision.




-Tex

[SlowHabit]

I don't think I can fold QQ here because I'm curious to what he has (considering he's a regular). If he has it, then he has it.

Also, I don't think he would play AA this way since live players weren't be afraid of a turn/river ace. But then again, what a freaking weird way to play KK.

My head is asplode thinking. Flip a coin. If you have the Qh, then flip a two-heads coin.

[LAgambol]

does he have a shaved head? this is almost always a fold unless u got a sick read. this line is Aces like 90% of the time.

[BobboFitos]

once you call pf, the flop is an easy call. you can't consider anything different actually. only thing id think is to fold pf to the l/r, but i generally wouldnt do that either.

[jfish]

i think it is fair to say that if he is shoving hands that you are ahead of, they are hands that have decent equity. namely flush draws and 2 overcards.

giving him a looser shoving range acounting for some pf semibluffs:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.425% 45.85% 01.57% 83070 2850.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 52.575% 51.00% 01.57% 92400 2850.00 { QQ+, AKs, Ah2h, QhJh, AKo }

giving him a tight shoving range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.539% 26.95% 02.59% 29610 2850.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 70.461% 67.87% 02.59% 74580 2850.00 { QQ+, AKs, Ah2h, QhJh }


which ranges from slightly +ev to fairly -ev. i think its a fold because of the positions preflop, and the fact that he will seriously never show up with like 56ss or any hand where you have >70% equity really.

[IShearSheep]

I am assuming this is Jay with the shaved head and Buddy Holly glasses. Preflop this is a tossup given the stack sizes and utg limp rr. Usually AA KK but you have position and you said he has been playing a little fast so ok.
I can't imagine him shoving AA here on the flop because he has to put you on jj-kk ak here and why would he want you to fold that on this flop. KK would be a little odd to shove here also because he prob doesnt put you on AA so same concept you have 2 outs or 3 outs.
I could see him doing this with akh or aqh and possibly jj from my experience with him.
I don't know seems like toss up but the fact that it is 7 handed, he has been playing fast, and he thinks you are capable of laying down big hands probably swings this towards a pretty easy call. If he has aa kk nh.

I dont think you can call PF and fold on this flop. If you called, it is because you think he has enough other hands besides AA/KK to make it profitable and I don't think the flop bet changes any of that, especially if he thinks you might lay down QQ/JJ to the bet. With AA or KK he probably bets smaller.
If you can fold somewhere, its PF not on the flop.

[ikestoys]

I dunno about your read in live games, but if were going to fold this flop, then we should fold pre. And i'm not folding pre

[AcidKnight]

If it's Jay, skinny white guy, shaved head and black emo glases, then this is not JJ, like ever. He probably has AKhh, AA, KK or some random hand like JTss that nailed the flop. I've never seen him overbet like this before either and we've played quite a bit together.

[LAgambol]

i was thinking it was the same guy, at worst he has AKhh, the only other time i seen him overbet like this was when he flopped quads