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#1
11-30-2007, 02:26 PM
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Re: How far will bonds go?
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[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] U.S. has a 95% chance of hitting a recession within the next two quarters IMO. Bond markets are doing a much better job of pricing this in than the equity markets. [/ QUOTE ] define recession. Barron [/ QUOTE ] The National Bureau of Economic Research is accepted as the official government determination of when a recession occurs. It is normally (but not always) two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. They do take other factors into consideration. Recessions Jimbo [/ QUOTE ] I wanted to get PRE's definition of recession...for betting purposes. Barron 
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#2
11-30-2007, 02:31 PM
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Re: How far will bonds go?
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I wanted to get PRE's definition of recession...for betting purposes. Barron [/ QUOTE ] I understood that, but then you would need his definition of "real GDP" vs GDP and then another definition, then another. I thought it might help to agree on the generally accepted agency that defines the past economic climate clearly, concisely and consistently. Jimbo
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