Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Turn

[EnderW27]

I still believe this villian is on a draw. Let's imagine he's made his hand.
He has two pair or a set. There are about two hundred different straight draws out there now including the likely JT his opponent could have.
He has the straight. There's a flush draw out there now and the board is still threatening to counterfeit his current straight.

In short, this board is scary even playing against one opponent. If he had a hand he would bet. It's that simple. I know if I were in his position (OOP I might add) and had a strong hand I simply could not risk giving a free card here.

So my conclusion remains that this guy has top pair at best, total bluff at worst, and is quite likely on a draw himself. You must bet out. Must.

If it turns out he had a hand and check raises us out of the tournament we can take solace in knowing this guy is a complete idiot.

[locutus2002]

Hero checks behind.

I view the Q as a blank. Given the way hero has played it, it's hard for villain to put hero on a hand. I think villain will frequently bet on the river whether he hits his hand or not. It's prudent for hero to excercise a little pot control since his hand has showdown value.

Pray for the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[kuro]

If you bet the turn why bet so much? You can bet a lot less and protect against a flush draw and have a better shot of getting villain to put more money into the pot. What hand is likely to put more money into the pot that you're ahead of? Aren't you losing value by betting so much?

[Fireball_AA]

[ QUOTE ]
If you bet the turn why bet so much? You can bet a lot less and protect against a flush draw and have a better shot of getting villain to put more money into the pot. What hand is likely to put more money into the pot that you're ahead of? Aren't you losing value by betting so much?

[/ QUOTE ]

With implied odds (I supposed that if he hits, he will bet as much on the river as you did on the turn - could even be more - but that also supposes that you call every time he bets the river (not always true).

He can have 14 outs if a pair and flush draw. 8 outs with a flush draw (not the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) or 8 outs with an open ended 10J.

With 14 outs he will call any bet up to 1000 for sure. With 8 outs he has almost the right price to call 400 so may be tempted to do it. With a bet of 600, he will not get a good price at all, so it's going to be a fold if he has a draw or a call if he has a hand this way it's easier to play the river (bet pot is even better). Also betting strong makes it clearer that you will call an all-in where 400 seems low.

Also, does your future table image should impact how you play this? Do you want people to know that when you bet or raise, you do it strong so in the future, they will only play back when they have really strong hands. This will reduce the chances to be bluffed later?

[allenciox]

I am replying, to this one as well as the others, without looking at any other responses.

This is about the best situation imaginable. A seeming blank hits on the turn AND our opponent checks. This restricts his hand range enormously. If he had the straight or overpair or top pair, I have to believe he would bet here to extract chips (too much chance we will check behind). I am virtually certain he is on a draw and is checking in hope that we will check behind so he can get a free card. The other possibility was that he was on a pure bluff but has a queen so now that he hits he is no longer bluffing so he abandons his plan to bluff the turn (I consider this much less likely). We CANNOT afford to give a free card here. We have to deny him drawing odds. I would bet 700 here. If he calls, I will proceed with caution if a scare card hits on the river, checking behind if he checks but calling a reasonable sized bet. If he check-raises here, I am guessing he has a reasonable hand or draw, but I still am almost certainly ahead. At that point I am pot-committed and will get all my chips in.

[CarlSpackler]

1) What do you make of the villain's check? What are you asking yourself / thinking about in order to make the best decision?


His check could mean a couple of things. It could mean that he has a draw, or a piece+draw, and is trying to see the river cheap, hoping we check behind, since he CR’d us last time. He could possibly CR us again, however, if we bet and he has a strong draw or strong draw+piece.

Another possibility is that the villain CR’d us with air on the flop, making a steal attempt, and now he is done with this hand. I seriously doubt the villain would CR us with air again, here on the turn.

Or the villain may have TP, and the Q on the turn scared him, as he could possibly have us on AQ or KQs by the way we’ve played the hand thus far.

Finally, the villain may hold a strong hand and be ahead of us now. Since we only called his CR on the flop, he may be checking to entice us to bet here, and if we check he can always value bet the river.


2) Any thoughts on a range of hands?

Pretty much the same as what I had on the flop.


3) Do you check or bet? If you're betting, how much and what's your plan if he check-raises again? Do you have a plan for the river and if so, what is it?


Odds are the Qs doesn’t help the villain, as the only hand with a Q I possibly put him on before the turn is Q9s. We only called the villain’s raise on the flop (instead of betting) hoping the villain would make a mistake by betting on the turn. This didn’t happen.

The biggest advantage to just checking here, is that the villain can’t CR us and force us to make a difficult decision. The biggest disadvantage to checking is that we’re letting the villain take a free card on a draw heavy board, and our bottom 2 pair is vulnerable to being counterfeited.

I don’t like the idea of giving a free card here. If we check, and a danger card falls on the river, we’ll face a tough decision if the villain bets. I’d bet t600, and call any raise by the villain. By betting, we give the villain an opportunity to make a mistake by calling with a worse hand. Even if we get allin here and the villain has us beat, we still have 4 outs on the river.

If villain calls my bet, I’m hoping just to check it down on the river.

[Kirkrrr]

He knew the flop missed Hero's broadway/broadway and tried to take it down on the flop. Having failed on the flop and since one of Hero's potential hole cards just hit, he's probably done with the hand.

Now that he's checked on the turn, his hand range narrows down considerably. I think he'd fire another barrel with a good draw, so he probably has a pair >Q.

Like I said in my previous post, I'm betting if checked to. The board is now extremely draw-heavy and I don't see him playing anything that beats Hero that way. Bet about 2/3-Pot.

Kirk

[mentho lyptus]

well..since I was goning to post this in #2 ..I mine as well post it here..

Setup
$650 PokerStars Qualifier for the PokerStars Carribean Adventure (PCA)
9-Handed
Blinds 10/20
Hero is Strassa
No reads on villain

Stacks
Hero (CO) t2540
BB t3245

Pre-Flop
All fold to hero who has 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and raises to t80. Button and SB fold. BB calls t60.

Flop
Pot: t170

Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks. Action is on the hero.

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There are many ways to play this...and many ways to lose w/ this..I have been involved in hands like this...well,..not exact, exact...But it does seems as if when I move in w/ only the 2 bottom pair I come up short a lot, even when ahead...But in your scenario there isn't even an overcard out there post flop....

1. Pre-flop...

First off why are you raising to 80 to begin w/ holding 57s?

To obviously steal the pot right there....or..you've had to much to drink....or won your way in via a freeroll and just play bad

I just can't get by the pre-flop move. just to much risk vs. reward..It makes little sense to make moves at this stage

when the BB calls that big raise...you have to put him on a big hand....that is unless he's dumb and won his way in via free- roll as well..Or Maybe he put u on a pre-flopsteal which is what u tried....So he could have any big A. to overcards or ..big/low PP..

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2. post- flop

from the look of the pre-flop actions the hero appears to have tons of gamble in him....So,..if he's going to make that raise in that spot, for that little money, he's likely a randy player that is capable of doing anything.

How much Post flop?....pot his what, 170..well..I don't know what the hero would do, but I would move all in or KILL that pot by so much it's like an ALL IN. A 1200 bet may not be an option anyway because It's doubtful you'll push half of your chips when you know you're going to put them in the rest in anyway. (maybe though)...U could still do damage w/ 1250 chips left if a trouble card comes on the turn and u make an all american lay down.....Slow playing isn't an option. Right now your ahead...it's not the time to wus out. Make the villian decide.....

The only way I see it is the only way u get a call is if he has a set.....a flush draw....or a big pocket pair.....I just can't see the BB having a straight draw by calling that raise unless he has 66 or 88....I guess that those are some options that can crush u..and u do only have bottom 2 pair...

You're beating 3 of those off the bat....If he has a set youre toast...but u still have 2 cards and you're not burnt yet...this is poker stars..and you'll hit ur boat.

I say push.....he'll muck........and you make a promise to yourself not to get into these perdicament this early any more.

Now I see the turn..and the check raise by the hero....again...I would have put him all all after his re-raise w/ the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] that card doesn't look like a danger card to me..


go ahead..flame away.....call me weak/loose..stupid/loose or call me a donkey....

[gergery]

1. I think Villain is weak after his check. I don’t see him wanting to give free cards with a made hand like a set, straight or better two pair. The main question I’m asking myself is,

“What should I do if he check-raises me?”. I think a big draw is probably most likely if he pushes, so I probably need to call him. So if I bet say 200, maybe he just flat calls to make his hand, and that is bad from my perspective since that prices him in. But if I bet say 1k here, he might think he has little fold equity so might fold. However, if I bet 500, maybe he thinks that is now enough to win, and that I can also fold, so he pushes.

“What pot size do I want to have if he calls or raises me here? – For example, I bet 500 he calls then pot is 1700 on river with 2000 behind? Is that dynamic good for me, or do I prefer betting 750 now, he calls then pot is 2200 with 1800 behind. If a scare card hits with pot at 1700, maybe he bets 1k and I can call and still be alive. But if pot is 200, he probably just pushes if betting, so I must put tourney life on the line to call. So the river dynamic must be taken into account now for my turn bet size.

2. Range of hands is still fairly wide. However, I think strong made hands would be discounted, since many Hero’s in this position might take a free card and Villain hence wants to come out firing rather than give free cards. Whereas strong draws here and much more likely to check-raise.

3. I bet ~450. I plan to call a check-raise allin putting him on a draw as most likely now. I’ll reevaluate if he checks-raises to 1500 or so as that seems much stronger. If he calls, I probably check behind on the river if the card is scary and value bet small otherwise.

-g

[gergery]

Hmm, interesting post.

If he has marginal hand, then he is probably more likely to call if we bet. He is also likely to bet on a scare card, which then puts us to a tough decision. we are also giving him real outs to improve.

If he has a draw, then he is behind and quite likely to get all in with us right now. That is good times.

If he has air, there is also a good chance he doesn’t fire again, since he’s seen us now bet and call a checkraise showing a decent hand and willingness to stick around on tough board.

If he has monster, he still bets the river and we still lose, and lose less but the chances he has this holding have gone down.

On balance, there is merit in checking, but I think betting is better.

-g