Fading the Tiger

[irisheyes]

Disclaimer: Poster is a SS NLHE player with little time to grind anymore, and on SB I'm so square I'm round. Very much in learning mode, and posting this for potential ridicule/advice.

Little analysis on this other than Tiger is all anyone is talking about this week on ESPN, Sports Radio, or in The USA Today. Fairways/greens are anticipated to be fast and play very long which certainly plays heavily in Tiger's favor -- probably a bad omen for fading TW.

So here we go:

Tiger 1st Rd Score
Over 71.5 (+115) 1u
Tiger averaging ~73 on Thursdays at Augusta.

Tournament Matchup
Tiger vs. Mickelson (+240) 1u
c'mon 24 to 10?

Tournament Matchup
Tiger vs. Vijay (+300) 1.5 u
3 to 1? seriously?

Tournament Wager
Tiger Woods v. The Field (-170) 2u

Tournament Wager
Finishing Position/Tiger Woods
Over 2.5 (-125) 1u

These are fairly correlated, so they could be parlays, but not an option in my only book. Just starting to whoring bonuses and getting rolls at different books.

Other unrelated props I like:

Will there be a whole in one?
NO (-170) 1u

Will there be a playoff?
NO (-280) 1u

Masters 0-0-0 +0u

[irisheyes]

Thanks to rdh009 for the analysis on Tiger's performance in the excellent Masters Props thread

Also got in a unit on first round match Vijay (+170) v. Tiger again props to rdh.

Masters 2007
0-0-0 +0u

[rdh009]

GL, I like your bets. I haven't seen the hole in one prop. There have only been 17 hole in ones since 1934, so I think there is value in that.

Conditions are tough at Augusta so far from what I have heard. Phil is +4 through 8, which is disappointing. We'll see, there is still a lot more golf this weekend. I can't wait until it comes on TV this afternoon.

[irisheyes]

TY, rdh. Do you happen to know how often it has ended in a playoff?

sb.com (yes, I know) had the hole in one prop

[rdh009]

13 playoffs:

Sudden Death
7 (1979, 1982, 1987, 1989, 1990, 2003, 2005)
18 hole
5 (1942, 1954, 1962, 1966, 1970)
36 hole
1 (1935)

[rdh009]

Yeah, that playoff bet looks solid, 13 playoffs in 73 years...17%... 5.6:1

EDIT: so that equates to being good up to -461 if the field has been close to the same size each year?

[NajdorfDefense]

Took Choi, Stenson, Howell, Olazabal, Ogilvy, and 1-2 others. gogogo tiger in the drink!

[rdh009]

[ QUOTE ]
Took Choi, Stenson, Howell, Olazabal, Ogilvy, and 1-2 others. gogogo tiger in the drink!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, especially since Phil already has. He is cruising to miss the cut.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
GL, I like your bets. I haven't seen the hole in one prop. There have only been 17 hole in ones since 1934, so I think there is value in that.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that stat is true, how is the NO only -170? Am I missing something here? Are most of those 17 HIO's in recent years?

[rdh009]

Hole No. 4
Jeff Sluman, 1992 (4-iron, 213 yards)

Hole No. 6
Leland Gibson, 1954 (4-iron, 190 yards)
*Billy Joe Patton, 1954 (5-iron, 190 yards)
Charles Coody, 1972 (5-iron, 190 yards)
Chris DiMarco, 2004 (5-iron, 198 yards)

Hole No. 12
Claude Harmon, 1947 (7-iron, 155 yards)
*William Hyndman, 1959 (6-iron, 155 yards)
Curtis Strange, 1988 (7-iron, 155 yards)

Hole No. 16
*Ross Somerville, 1934 (mashie niblick, 145 yards)
Willie Goggin, 1935 (spade mashie, 145 yards)
*Ray Billows, 1940 (8-iron, 145 yards)
*John Dawson, 1949 (4-iron, 190 yards)
Clive Clark, 1968 (2-iron, 190 yards)
Corey Pavin, 1992 (8-iron, 140 yards)
Raymond Floyd, 1996 (5-iron, 182 yards)
Padraig Harrington, 2004 (6-iron, 177 yards)
Kirk Triplett, 2004 (6-iron, 177 yards)
Trevor Immelman, 2005 (7-iron, 177 yards)

*Amateur