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  #21  
Old 06-09-2006, 08:45 AM
Bill C Bill C is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

[ QUOTE ]


1. Are you seriouosly saying then when capping a maiden race anything other the distance Tomlinson is the most important factor?...

2. If anything turf figures are the least useful, they pretty much only factor in on the first dirt to turf race, after a horse has a race on the turf, that race provides more info than the Tomlinson.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. Yes
2. That's true that they are only useful for the first or second turf outing.

I know more about these numbers than you might guess, and have been using them since they first came out maybe 15 yrs ago as a small booklet that sold for $40. You can believe whatever you like. I have found that players who rely primarily on numbers, whatever those numbers may be, don't tend to understand horses or racing.

Just my $.02 worth...

bill c
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  #22  
Old 06-09-2006, 02:57 PM
Jokerz24 Jokerz24 is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

[ QUOTE ]

The only horse that scares be a bit in the final furlong is Keyed Entry, mostly because of Pletcher. Again I just think much of this field will be so far behind by the half they will have no chance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I took this off the DRF.com site and it sounds like good news for you quote:
"Keyed Entry is entered, but trainer Todd Pletcher said he is unlikely to run."
The only other horse I would look at in this race is Songster even though he was beat by 9 lengths by Bling before.
Who do you like in race 9? is it Adieu? I have only looked at the names and have not looked at the PP yet. And race 10 is it English Channel and Grey Swallow? This allowing you to go deep on the Stakes race? Since you will most like have a 1horse/2horse/2horse/deep setup or something like that.
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  #23  
Old 06-09-2006, 03:34 PM
Bishop22 Bishop22 is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

[ QUOTE ]
Calling experienced horse players...

I am intrigued by the pick-4. In that it could provide a huge payoff again. My question is do you think Too Much Bling is a single in the Woody Stephens at 7 furlongs? His speed to the 1/2 looks devastating and Garret Gomez is 3-for-3 on board. It also fun to watch grey horses win. And Baffert sounds confident.

The only horse that scares be a bit in the final furlong is Keyed Entry, mostly because of Pletcher. Again I just think much of this field will be so far behind by the half they will have no chance.

I would like to single this race and go very deep in the other three hoping for bombers...

[/ QUOTE ]

5. Keyed Entry - Solid horse dropping back to his wheel house with Plether at the helm is a little scary.

7. Dontfearthereaper is from my friends' stable and I know Rick Dutrow loves him. He came from off a hot pace last time with a game finish that got close. Last work was visually impressive and may be sitting on a big race. I shot an email to a guy at the stable to see what he thinks but I think even with a big race he won't get past TMB.

Songster and Fab Strike don't scare me but they are solid enough to have a shot. This is fab strike's first race at this distance and he has a pretty decent distance Tomlinson if you think that matters (see above debate).

Basically TMB is a solid favorite here and I love keying horses in 7F races as they tend to go to the specialists. IMO there are two big problems with this play. The first and biggest is the Manhattan, I see this as a chalk fest so going deep in this race is spewing $$. The second is that there are very few bombs in the Belmont that have a shot. IMO the risk/reward of this particular Pick 4 kinda sucks especially if you are planning on going pretty deep as you stated.

EDIT: Just got a reply to my email, Dontfearthereaper will be scratched.
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  #24  
Old 06-09-2006, 04:25 PM
Bishop22 Bishop22 is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

$8 for the scalpers (Beware Pinny lines are not track odds you should no what you're doing here)

Bodog:
Horse Racing Props/Futures 2006 Belmont Stakes - Will the winner of the 138th Belmont Stakes pay more than the $27.80 that Bernardini did at the Preakness Stakes? - Moneyline
Sat@6:00p All wagers have action. No Refunds. No Parlays. Max $100

350 to win 100

Pinny:
Selection 1 : Horses: Belmont Stakes
Odds To Win - (DH = yes)
Will Deputy Glitters win the Belmont ? (must start

105) Yes +1513

Risking 23.13 to Win 350.00 USD
---

Selection 2 : Horses: Belmont Stakes
Odds To Win - (DH = yes)
Will Double Galore win the Belmont ? (must start)

107) Yes +4500

Risking 7.78 to Win 350.00 USD
---

Selection 3 : Horses: Belmont Stakes
Odds To Win - (DH = yes)
Will Hemingway's Key win the Belmont ?(must start)

109) Yes +2100

Risking 16.67 to Win 350.00 USD
---

Selection 4 : Horses: Belmont Stakes
Odds To Win - (DH = yes)
Will Oh So Awesome win the Belmont ? (must start)

115) Yes +1716

Risking 20.40 to Win 350.00 USD
---

Selection 5 : Horses: Belmont Stakes
Odds To Win - (DH = yes)
Will Platinum Couple win the Belmont ? (must start

117) Yes +6750

Risking 5.19 to Win 350.00 USD
---

Selection 6 : Horses: Belmont Stakes
Odds To Win - (DH = yes)
Will Sacred Light win the Belmont ? (must start)

119) Yes +1800

Risking 19.44 to Win 350.00 USD
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  #25  
Old 06-09-2006, 05:41 PM
TripleH68 TripleH68 is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

[ QUOTE ]
Basically TMB is a solid favorite here and I love keying horses in 7F races as they tend to go to the specialists. IMO there are two big problems with this play. The first and biggest is the Manhattan, I see this as a chalk fest so going deep in this race is spewing $$. The second is that there are very few bombs in the Belmont that have a shot. IMO the risk/reward of this particular Pick 4 kinda sucks especially if you are planning on going pretty deep as you stated.

EDIT: Just got a reply to my email, Dontfearthereaper will be scratched.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your opinions.

At work so quick response for now. The Acorn looks wide open and I was likely to include seven in this leg. That makes things expensive quickly. Right now I am looking at singling TMB, four in the Manhattan and five in the Belmont. $140.

I was swept away in the Smarty Jones mania in 2004 and spent $15 on a $5 pick-4 that was live heading into the Belmont. When I watched the only G1 winner in the race other than Smarty win(don't say his name please) and that including him would have made me $17k richer I vowed to never go short in pick-4s again. What I may do is double up the bet by going short in the Manhatten with an extra ticket.

More later.
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  #26  
Old 06-09-2006, 07:18 PM
Bishop22 Bishop22 is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

[ QUOTE ]
The Acorn looks wide open and I was likely to include seven in this leg. That makes things expensive quickly. Right now I am looking at singling TMB, four in the Manhattan and five in the Belmont. $140.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that the Acorn is wide open but I do like Adieu, 2nd off for Pletcher after a bad trip last time out still scoring a 96 Beyer. If she gets home she is going to crush your payout.

[ QUOTE ]
I was swept away in the Smarty Jones mania in 2004 and spent $15 on a $5 pick-4 that was live heading into the Belmont. When I watched the only G1 winner in the race other than Smarty win(don't say his name please) and that including him would have made me $17k richer I vowed to never go short in pick-4s again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh man, you didn't have the capital on hand? This would have been a pretty cheap hedge.

[ QUOTE ]

What I may do is double up the bet by going short in the Manhatten with an extra ticket.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not a bad idea 2,4,8 is all you need there.
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  #27  
Old 06-09-2006, 09:29 PM
TripleH68 TripleH68 is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

[ QUOTE ]
I was swept away in the Smarty Jones mania in 2004 and spent $15 on a $5 pick-4 that was live heading into the Belmont. When I watched the only G1 winner in the race other than Smarty win(don't say his name please) and that including him would have made me $17k richer I vowed to never go short in pick-4s again.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh man, you didn't have the capital on hand? This would have been a pretty cheap hedge.

Oh I had the capital. I was just a complete blooming idiot. I remember Meteor Storm just jumping out at me off the page that year and I singled him.

The thing about horse race betting is learning how to make cover/saver bets only comes through hard lessons. That was a hard one and taught me something about Zito. And about including any horse that has won a G1.

The thought of watching Smarty run second still pains me so much I get physically ill.
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  #28  
Old 06-10-2006, 03:54 PM
TripleH68 TripleH68 is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

Closers on the dirt today at Belmont = not happening.
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  #29  
Old 06-10-2006, 04:27 PM
Bishop22 Bishop22 is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

I know [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Unfortuanetly I thought there was some value here:

Sat 6/10 Will the leader with 1/4 mile to go win the race?
Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
306 No -198 Risk To Win
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  #30  
Old 06-10-2006, 04:33 PM
Bishop22 Bishop22 is offline
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Default Re: Belmont Stakes

Hoping you nixed the pick 4?!?
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