($55R) Ridiculously early bubble, 99 repush

Bishop22 · #1 08-14-2006, 08:05 PM

Villians range is ~100%, same raise every hand. I am expecting him to fold 85+% and I am trying to get some seperation from shorty for the likely marathon bubble. Push increases stack by ~17%. Is it too early for this?

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t30/t60
4 players
Converter
Seat 5: Someguy ( 5980 )
Seat 6: Shortie ( 1100 )
Seat 7: Villian ( 11250 )
Seat 1: Hero ( 1670 )
Pre-flop: (2 players) HERO is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">CO raises to t200</font>, <font color="#cc0000">HERO raises all-in t1670</font>

Hakon · #2 08-14-2006, 08:32 PM

If he folds 85% of the time and raises 100% of the time, it's simply an ICM question:

99 has a 57.831% equity against top 15% on the Karlson-Sklansky ranking (33+,A7o+,A4s+,KTs+).

EV fold: 0.167

EV all in and he folds: 0.1838
EV all in and he calls and you win: 0.2382
EV all in and he calls and you lose: 0

EV all in: 0.1838*0.85 + 0.2382*0.15*0.57831 + 0 = 0.177

Push is EV +1.0% [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

mike28 · #3 08-14-2006, 08:38 PM

wow i want to see the hands that lead to a level 2 bubble

i've knocked 3 people out in level one before but a level 2 bubble is sick