Very interesting 100-200 hand. Need all the help i can get!

[lapoker17]

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As for a grudge match im up for it with any stakes and my word can be trusted.

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when is this going down?

[Ship Ship McGipp]

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As for a grudge match im up for it with any stakes and my word can be trusted.

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when is this going down?

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[Nezzar]

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ITS THE RIVER THAT MAKES THIS HAND INTERESTING!


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actually i think that is 100% wrong.
the key to this hand is the turn, the river is totally standard.

i personally fold the turn cuz i think that most good players will have a very low bluffing frequency on a blank turn after the preflop and flop action.

i think making calls like this on the turn is a bad play long term w/o specific reads as in general ppl just dont bluff in this spot that often.

that being said if you do decide villian will bluff the turn often enough to make it a call the river is a very easy call.

also your contention that villian's range is polarized is non-sense as hero's hand is face up and if villian doesnt value bet JJ+ he's not even 1/2 way good/tough.

hero is NEVER c/c 2 streets OOP with Ax and his range is so redic tilted towards smaller pp that not shoving river with AA/JJ is just burning up money.

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like more than half of what u say i agree with. Not the last part that Hero would not C/C two streets with an ace that part i dont agree with... and not the first part either.

I agree that folding turn would be best bc of what u said regarding flop and preflop action. Personally i would probably call turn even tho i have a strong feeling that this is spew. I also would c/c two streets with A-J so maybe heros range is rediciously tilted two a small PP but mine certainly isnt...

the thing is that when villain knows im calling with A-J on turn then suddenly the river becomes and easy call with 7-7.

Also one more thing that havent been considered. even if villain doesnt bluff turn often enough to make it a good call he can bluff river enough to make the turn call good. You know what i mean?
Lets say villain doesnt bluff turn especially often with flop and preflop action. lets say he bluffs 10% of the time here. it costs u 4K to call so its a bad call. But on river his bluffing frequency is depending on the board. If he was bluffing on turn villain will bluff 100% with an ace river but else he wont bluff at all, just give up (this is hypothetical, a model if u will). this still makes for a bad call but some of the time villain has bet turn in protection and to get a showdown with a worse hand (kind of a blockingbet but in position). if villain bluffs 15% on turn then its ev+ to call turn if u know how to play the river (i.e asess what rivers villain would continue to bluff on).

On the river you can use your hand reading skills to decide wether u should call or not and thus make up for the EV you lost on turn... im not sure how to explain this...

do i make any sense at all?

[Nezzar]

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1. Why would he not push an ace?

2. Why would he not push AA?

3. If you are timex and Zupp bets 1/2 pot on the river, do you fold or call your 77?

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1. bc an ace is in timex range. but he would push if he is bluffing.

2. Zupp is not afraid to have a worse hand but would like to get value from a pocket that might fold else (this is from Zupps point of view, he doesnt know that hero would call more with a pocket). also if timex should have an 8 zupp saves money when timex checkraises allin.

3. yes id fold to half pot bets here (in this hand in this situation).

I now that nr 2 is flawed thinking but im too tired to sort it out. when i think about it nr 1 and nr3 is also flawed thinking. the thing is for my thinking to work u have to know what exactly what level your opponent are on and how he plays... More often than not i think i know this about my opponents but i probably dont....

[riverboatking]

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I also would c/c two streets with A-J so maybe heros range is rediciously tilted two a small PP but mine certainly isnt...


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IMHO playing AJ like this vs tough players is pretty bad.

[The_Earner]

Wouldn't timex re-raise any A with a decent kicker before the flop? (If we exclude the possibility that he was going for a back-raise with a hand like AK or something.) His calling range here would be almost exactly 22-77 (and an 8). Given that wouldn't a VB with 99+ be very std or mandatory?

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3. If you are timex and Zupp bets 1/2 pot on the river, do you fold or call your 77?

3. yes id fold to half pot bets here (in this hand in this situation).

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Isn't this a really good argument for pushing with 99+ and betting half the pot with any bluffs?

I think you are polarizing villains range to much in this hand (and especially in the other one you posted), into bluff or nuts.
If this was really bad and unbalanced players how would never VB anything worse then an A in hand 1 (and 2) and try several barrel bluffs with nothing, your logic makes sens. But I really doubt this...

If we look at the results, a call down turned out to be right, but I think you will get yourself in to alot of trouble against really good players by doing this. Since they would VB the [censored] out of you, knowing you are calling them down this light and they would also probably be more inclined in the future to VB really thin then to bluff in these spots.

[donkey]

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1. Why would he not push an ace?

2. Why would he not push AA?

3. If you are timex and Zupp bets 1/2 pot on the river, do you fold or call your 77?

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1. bc an ace is in timex range. but he would push if he is bluffing.

2. Zupp is not afraid to have a worse hand but would like to get value from a pocket that might fold else (this is from Zupps point of view, he doesnt know that hero would call more with a pocket). also if timex should have an 8 zupp saves money when timex checkraises allin.

3. yes id fold to half pot bets here (in this hand in this situation).

I now that nr 2 is flawed thinking but im too tired to sort it out. when i think about it nr 1 and nr3 is also flawed thinking. the thing is for my thinking to work u have to know what exactly what level your opponent are on and how he plays... More often than not i think i know this about my opponents but i probably dont....

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Nezzar, all of your logic is pretty far off. How does villain know timex will check/call 2 streets with AJ on this board? That cannot be a large chunk of his range unless he's spewy... And even so, just because timex knows an ace in his range does not conclude that a smaller "value" bet is better than pushing...that should be pretty obvious. As for saying you would check/fold to a 1/2 pot bet but check/call the pot bet allin--that is insanely bad against a smart player. If we assume Zupp is smart and observant, he is bluffing 1/2 pot and pushing TT-KK and you lose all the money.

[luegofuego]

yeah thats pretty ridic. if nosebleed were that easy, more ppl would be a lot richer. "he valuebets half pot and shoves his bluffs", thats just [censored] ridic.

[ahnuld]

Timex almost never has an ace here, redic easy vb for TT+ for villan. If villan is overaggro lagtard then the call is not that hard as you know he is firing his entire range on the river.

[Nezzar]

Look i said that for my logic to work u have to know how the opponent plays. so my logic works under this specific condition. i know this is a tough contion and ptopabably i have to high confidence in my ability to do this....