Very interesting 100-200 hand. Need all the help i can get!

[Nezzar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PartyGirl,

[ QUOTE ]
If he is at all competent he will be randomizing enough to make it pretty much neutral EV for Timex.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol at this. Do u know how hard this is? Do u have any idea?

Dont answer pls.

[/ QUOTE ]

...

Nezzar, being completely objective here, Jeff and PartyGirl are pretty much right about this hand...

The only thing I see interesting about it is that it was a large pot and Timex called down. The ace is nearly an irrelevant card at these stakes because good players are jamming TT-KK on the river, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree with the ace being irrelevant. Consider how timex would play A-J. I think he would play it exactly the same. At least i would...

[/ QUOTE ]

So you think Zupp checks back QQ and KK because of this?

[/ QUOTE ]

No but def. not go allin for slightly more than pot on the river. i think he would try to bet less to get value from a lower pocket. Thats why i exclude any pocket pair (except AA) from zupps range when he goes allin on river.

Edit: i exclude AA also.

edit2: Im not sure about AA. I have to think about some more... so its maybe in his range for now.

[Nezzar]

[ QUOTE ]
Ehrm, you do realize that if AJ is a hand Timex should be calling on turn it means that he is doing this because Zupp fires a wide range on turn. Now, if this is true, this is the exact reason why Zupp SHOULD VB thin river, do you see why? You want Zupp to fire a wide range on turn and just give up 9 times out of 10 on river, or do you want Timex turncall with AJ to be really bad? You cannot have it both ways.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes! finally we are getting somewhere! Zupp def should VB THIN on river. Now this hands shows some deep level thinking. To find out what best to call turn with against zupps range u have to do some math. What do u guesstimate AJ or 77?

one more thing, zupp must bet some of his range on turn for protection, showdown and suckout value.

[jfish]

yawn.

[mustmuck]

Nezzar,

My gut feeling is that the shove (as opposed to a smaller value bet) polarizing Zupp's range between an A/8 and a bluff is wrong. You say that timex can have AJ here, but it seems much more likely that he has 22-99 (probably more 22-77). I'm more than willing to be wrong on this one though.

However, I do have a question:

After the turn action, but before the river, who do you think has more aces in their range?

[Nezzar]

[ QUOTE ]
Nezzar,

My gut feeling is that the shove (as opposed to a smaller value bet) polarizing Zupp's range between an A/8 and a bluff is wrong. You say that timex can have AJ here, but it seems much more likely that he has 22-99 (probably more 22-77). I'm more than willing to be wrong on this one though.

However, I do have a question:

After the turn action, but before the river, who do you think has more aces in their range?

[/ QUOTE ]

first, interesting question.

On turn I would say timex by far, wouldnt you? As for river its timex by miles.

As for the shove polarizing zupps range im not saying he has an ace, 8 or bluff. im saying he has a bluff or 8. but i could ofc be wrong as well [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]. Its simply my belief.


Edit: I think that poker is just in its childhood. there are a lot of complex work that havent been done with hand ranges. I hope this will take as long as possible because im afraid that in the next ten years it will develop to a completly different level and the games will be almost impossible for you and me. Phil Galfond pls be happy with just playing and making money and dont do any work on this. PLEASE!

[donkey]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PartyGirl,

[ QUOTE ]
If he is at all competent he will be randomizing enough to make it pretty much neutral EV for Timex.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol at this. Do u know how hard this is? Do u have any idea?

Dont answer pls.

[/ QUOTE ]

...

Nezzar, being completely objective here, Jeff and PartyGirl are pretty much right about this hand...

The only thing I see interesting about it is that it was a large pot and Timex called down. The ace is nearly an irrelevant card at these stakes because good players are jamming TT-KK on the river, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree with the ace being irrelevant. Consider how timex would play A-J. I think he would play it exactly the same. At least i would...

[/ QUOTE ]

So you think Zupp checks back QQ and KK because of this?

[/ QUOTE ]

No but def. not go allin for slightly more than pot on the river. i think he would try to bet less to get value from a lower pocket. Thats why i exclude any pocket pair (except AA) from zupps range when he goes allin on river.

Edit: i exclude AA also.

edit2: Im not sure about AA. I have to think about some more... so its maybe in his range for now.

[/ QUOTE ]

this thread is getting better and better. you claim that his range is 100% quads/ace/bluff because he wouldn't value-push the river with TT-KK (he would make a smaller milking bet LOLOL) but then you claim that calling the river with 77 is genius. this is so revolutionary!!!!!! just imagine if zupp had the ability to think about what timex was thinking and push QQ hoping to induce a big-call from 77!!!!! that would be ridiculous deep-level thinking so timex can obviously just exclude that from zupp's range...

btw, i cant even begin to imagine the difference between AA and an ace here...i wanna hear the explanation on that conclusion

[Nezzar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PartyGirl,

[ QUOTE ]
If he is at all competent he will be randomizing enough to make it pretty much neutral EV for Timex.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol at this. Do u know how hard this is? Do u have any idea?

Dont answer pls.

[/ QUOTE ]

...

Nezzar, being completely objective here, Jeff and PartyGirl are pretty much right about this hand...

The only thing I see interesting about it is that it was a large pot and Timex called down. The ace is nearly an irrelevant card at these stakes because good players are jamming TT-KK on the river, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree with the ace being irrelevant. Consider how timex would play A-J. I think he would play it exactly the same. At least i would...

[/ QUOTE ]

So you think Zupp checks back QQ and KK because of this?

[/ QUOTE ]

No but def. not go allin for slightly more than pot on the river. i think he would try to bet less to get value from a lower pocket. Thats why i exclude any pocket pair (except AA) from zupps range when he goes allin on river.

Edit: i exclude AA also.

edit2: Im not sure about AA. I have to think about some more... so its maybe in his range for now.

[/ QUOTE ]

this thread is getting better and better. you claim that his range is 100% quads/ace/bluff because he wouldn't value-push the river with TT-KK (he would make a smaller milking bet LOLOL) but then you claim that calling the river with 77 is genius. this is so revolutionary!!!!!! just imagine if zupp had the ability to think about what timex was thinking and push QQ hoping to induce a big-call from 77!!!!! that would be ridiculous deep-level thinking so timex can obviously just exclude that from zupp's range...

btw, i cant even begin to imagine the difference between AA and an ace here...i wanna hear the explanation on that conclusion

[/ QUOTE ]

with the river shove, Im not claiming zupps range is ace/bluff/8. im saying its 8 or bluff. no ace, ok?

Im saying its better for Zupp to bet less with KK- because an ace is in timex range.

As for the difference between an ace and AA...

Im not sure what u mean. The difference from Zupps point of view and how he would bet it on the river? or why AA is defferent from the other pockets? Or why i think i can exclude it form his river range after the shove?

[donkey]

1. Why would he not push an ace?

2. Why would he not push AA?

3. If you are timex and Zupp bets 1/2 pot on the river, do you fold or call your 77?

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
ITS THE RIVER THAT MAKES THIS HAND INTERESTING!


[/ QUOTE ]

actually i think that is 100% wrong.
the key to this hand is the turn, the river is totally standard.

i personally fold the turn cuz i think that most good players will have a very low bluffing frequency on a blank turn after the preflop and flop action.

i think making calls like this on the turn is a bad play long term w/o specific reads as in general ppl just dont bluff in this spot that often.

that being said if you do decide villian will bluff the turn often enough to make it a call the river is a very easy call.

also your contention that villian's range is polarized is non-sense as hero's hand is face up and if villian doesnt value bet JJ+ he's not even 1/2 way good/tough.

hero is NEVER c/c 2 streets OOP with Ax and his range is so redic tilted towards smaller pp that not shoving river with AA/JJ is just burning up money.

[NLSoldier]

i basically agree with all of you who say this hand isnt that interesting etc but i think it is probably fairly insightful and interesting to the target audience of nezzar's article which is obviously not on nearly the level most of you are on.