The Theory of PLO8 (low content)

[Phil153]

I intend to spend the next two weeks working out the theory and math behind PLO8. I'll be writing a comprehensive analysis of starting hands and common post flop situations. The bias will be toward 100-200 PLO8 as played online but much of it will be applicable to other limits also.

Topics will include:

<ul type="square">[*]Starting Hand Categories Ranked by:
- Preflop Expectation vs Number of Opponents
- Chance of flopping a high equity hand
- Actual winrate from real data.
- An analysis of each hand type by position.
- List of the top X% of hand types ranked by profitability.
[*]Common Flop Situations:
-Various odds vs # of Opponents - Chance that opponents have a flush draw, nut low draw, second nut low draw, etc on various flops.
-The Expectation Value of various hands on the flop: One Pair/Two Pair/Set/Flush/Low draw on a Rainbow/2 flush/1 low/ 2 low etc boards vs no. of opponents.
-The Expectation Value of betting, raising, slowplaying, checkraising with hands of varying strengths.
-Key implications of this.
[*]Pot Building, Equity, and Expectation
Some general theory to tie in with the above.
[*]Metagame considerations
Preflop raising, image, taking marginal spots - as applies to PLO8.[/list]
I expect to spend a good many hours on this. I have a math degree so the math shouldn't be too hard (although very tedious [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) Anyone have suggestions for further content/areas of enquiry? Odds they would like included? Situations for analysis?

Also, it would help if I could get access to a solid winning player's database at the $200 level. I currently have about 7,000 hands at this level which is not enough to make fine distinctions between certain hand types - sample size is a killer when trying to find out the difference between A24x and A25x/A34x. Even a $100PL database would be very helpful. If no one is forthcoming (which I expect will be the case [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]) I'll mostly be using data from about my own 60K hands of $50 &amp; $100PL.

Any further suggestions, ideas, etc?

[dcasper70]

Phil,
While your analysis will be regarding PLO8, any comparisons to LO8 would be appreciated, even if just a very minor 'similar LO8 expectation' type comments.

Just a thought...

[Cooker]

I don't see a topic on when to call like a moron in a 3 way shove with a straight draw with a 2 flush on board. Other than that, I think it will be an interesting read.

[TomG]

I'd be interested in some analysis regarding the impact of stack size vs. win rate. I feel like I'm giving up EV when I have to leave a table after building up a double or triple stack. Is there a way to quantify this in terms of bb/100 for different stack sizes?

[mrroyboy]

I think this is an excellent idea. There is very little good info written about this game except on this forum. Your work will be much appreciated.Please e-mail me with any of this. Thank you from all PLO8 players.

[cero_z]

Hi dcasper,

[ QUOTE ]
While your analysis will be regarding PLO8, any comparisons to LO8 would be appreciated, even if just a very minor 'similar LO8 expectation' type comments.


[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of the winners' profits in the games Phil mentioned come directly from the fact that the two games play like polar opposites much of the time.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi dcasper,

[ QUOTE ]
While your analysis will be regarding PLO8, any comparisons to LO8 would be appreciated, even if just a very minor 'similar LO8 expectation' type comments.


[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of the winners' profits in the games Phil mentioned come directly from the fact that the two games play like polar opposites much of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I found trying to play Limit O8 while playing lots of PLO8 at the same time screwed up both my games. Level of aggression required is just so different.

-g

[januarymute]

Phil, I think this will be a valuable exercise to you, because forcing yourself to put thoughts about your approach to the game into words will cause you to inspect all the areas of your style closely. But I think it may lead to a lot of frustration for others...

I say this because it seems to be a common mentality at 2+2, and this forum in general, to come up with a plug-in, formulaic approach for how to beat a game. For example, these starting hand threads where people come up with exhaustive lists of what hands to play in position X, when to raise, etc.

For rigid-structure games like limit O8, that kind of mind-set or approach or whatever you want to call it might be successful. But for big-bet games like PLO8 and NLHE, where there are many winning styles to choose from/incorporate, this sort of plug-in learning is flawed in that it may discourage a player from the experimentation it takes to develop an approach that not only works but is also comfortable. Worse yet, if a reader attempts to patch together various pieces of your guide to PLO8, the result could easily be a -EV style. For example, suppose the reader is naturally comfortable playing a 20/5 game, playing virtually nothing besides A2's and 3-wheel-card hands. Then they read your guide and notice that KKxx hands are winning at a decent clip for you, so they try to add them to their game. But perhaps KKxx won't win for them, because they aren't playing enough hands to get their opponents to discount the chances that they have top set when the K flops. It turns out that KKxx only gets a significant win % because your numbers are more like 45/15, we'll say, giving you a greater likelihood of getting action with nice-fitting flops. That is a pretty bad example, but I'm sure you see what I'm getting at.

Anyhow, I just thought I'd put these thoughts forward as a caution that Phil's advice is based on his particular approach to the game, and should be taken with a grain of salt when one considers how/if to incorporate whatever PLO8 theories come out of this. Still, I'm looking forward to reading what you have to say, if nothing else it should spark some good discussions.

[grant]

Phil,

This sounds like a terrific endeavor, and I look forward to anything you publish. Mute makes a good point about styles, but the empirical stuff will be interesting nonetheless, when compared to the theory. I especially like the idea of specific analysis of various flop types, since I always say there aren't that many types of flops that one couldn't categorize them for the most part.

I also suggest an appendix of some of your best chat lines. I can recall classics of yours such as: "Nice play, ya xxxxin Donkey!", "You're a godxxxx suckout artist!", and the everpopular "xxxx my xxxx, ya xxxxxin xxxxxxx!"

An essay on "How to put a table of nut-peddling weak tighties on tilt in 3 hands or less" would be a good read as well.

I don't think any serious work on the FTPLO8B would be complete without a few of these gems.

Good luck and please do not publish this too widely!

Thanks,

Grant (aka your buddy, BillKays)

[gergery]

Oh, and that sounds like a ton of work. I’d suggest narrowing your focus, or at least prioritizing somewhat. I’ll be very interested in your results.

I’d suggest starting with looking at expectation of various hands on the flop as a good place to start. (ie. top bottom pair – what % time it wins, how much it wins, etc.)

Also very interesting would be what % of the time various hands will flop a “continue-able’ flop. Ie. A2 can continue past flop Y% of time, KKxx can continue Z% of time

-g