POP QUIZ

[ILOVEPOKER929]

This hand came from a 10-20 full game at Motor City Casino, but im posting it here cuz this is where I usually post. My image at the time was tight/straight foward.

I had 8s6s on the BTN. One mediocre/passive limps from middle position and a horrible/passive player limps in the CO. I call on the button with my monster hand. The SB folds and the BB, who is a pro, checks. So we're 4 handed for 4.5 small bets

The flop comes out Js 7s 3d, giving me an 8-high flush draw. The pro checks, the two fish check, and I bet. To my surprise the pro now raises and both fish fold.

Now heres the Quiz:

1. What is the pro's most likely hand?

2. Given the nature of the pro's hand what is my best strategy on the flop+turn? When giving your answer for the turn play, please give a corresponding strategy for every turn card if necessary.

I will give what I think are the correct answers to this quiz in roughly 8hours.

[brettbrettr]

If the pro is good and he thinks you're solid you can probably raise any turn because he has a [censored] jack or seven.

[numeri]

1. This definitely looks like a pair that the pro is trying to protect. Most likely a J or 7, but maybe 88, too.

2. Since we're presumably drawing, I see no reason to get nuts on the flop - just call and see the turn. I would raise any spade and maybe an 8, and call otherwise. Depending on exactly what you think his impression of you is, you might try representing a set and raising and Brett mentioned.

[poker_n00b]

1. What is the pro's most likely hand?

Jack, 7 or weird 3 which he protects by raising. He *should* smooth call his FD or set here IMHO.

2. Given the nature of the pro's hand what is my best strategy on the flop+turn? When giving your answer for the turn play, please give a corresponding strategy for every turn card if necessary.

call flop raise, call down if u pair 8s raise if you hit flush. close? no?

[milesdyson]

most likely hands:

a7 k7 q7 t7 97 87 76
maybe he has done this with similar weak jacks.

you might think you can get him to fold his pair of 7s by showing more aggression. i agree if he's any good. you could easily have flopped a set here. calling and raising the turn will probably make him [censored] his pants and fold any weak made hand.

your other option is 3-betting the flop and betting the turn and river regardless, or 3-betting the flop and taking a free card if you feel that a flop 3-bet / turn bet may look too much like you're trying to get him to fold what he knows you know he has.

[DavidC]

The flop 3-bet line is pretty sexy if it works, as it's cheaper than the turn raise line. It also doesn't give him good enough odds to chase 2pr on the turn->river.

[BostonMetro]

It seems like there is a conflict between suggesting he wouldn't check-raise a pair of jacks, but that he would check-raise a pair of sevens. That is, if he doesn't expect later position players to bet with weak hands to try and pick up the pot, why would he check-raise with Q7 in a small pot? And if he does expect them to do this, why wouldn't he check, intending to raise here with J2o?

In a limped pot, it seems like the reverse-implied pot odds with top pair of jacks here are terrible. If he leads and everyone calls and any K, Q, A, 7, 3, spade comes off he's in trouble. I don't think he's giving up that much by attempting a check-raise here.

This isn't really to criticize Miles' post, just suggesting that it may be more likely that it is spewing to get really aggressive here when you might be drawing at 35% vs. top pair.

[milesdyson]

i mentioned weak J hands in my post. the thing about decent strength J hands is that you have two loose passive players who will call bets with a lotlotlot of hands. in that case the pro wouldnt worry much about protection (or the tight guy on the button). i would think he'd bet, let them call, and then basically take down a larger pot on the turn (or get called down by weaker hands).

so in my opinion, this is one of the 7x hands i mentioned more often than it is a Jx hand. and since i think this is true, it makes a lot of sense to me to try to win this pot against those hands regardless of whether i improve or not.

[siegfriedandroy]

miles, what do you think of the pro's play if he indeed has a 7? ive mentioned this a few times in the thread - curious what you think.

[BostonMetro]

I'd say in order of likelihood:

JX
7X (X > 7)
3X (X = K, A)

I think you will get led into into on the turn. I don't think that a turn raise will fold top pair (obviously), but if you do indeed turn a straight draw as well, you might put in a nice semi-bluff to try and fold the pairs of sevens and threes against a tough player (representing a hand like TJ, QJ, a small set). Otherwise, I would just call down unless you hit the flush. I would also raise if you pair your eight.