Friend offers ridiculously silly baseball bet

[MicroBob]

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Can't you make $100 in a couple of months by investing $100k in something safe? T-Bills? CD's?

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If he doesn't have to have his $100k locked-up then he could be free to invest it wherever he likes AND take this guy up on the bet.

[MicroBob]

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The giants are 16.5 out with 42 games left. Let's assume they go 30-12 while the dbacks go 12-30, the padres go 15-28, the rockies go 17-25, and the dodgers go like 18-24

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I believe the NY Giants in '51 went 37-7 in their last 44 games to overcome their 13 1/2 game deficit to the Brooklyn Dodgers.
That was only one team of course (maybe they weren't in 2nd place when their comeback started, not sure).

But I would think it would take a more monumental effort from the Giants than just 32-12 while hoping every other team completely collapsed somehow.

Also note that there should be a lot of inter-divisional battles towards the end of the season.
It might be approaching near impossible for EACH of those teams to all lose that many games if they're all playing each other a ton.


Anyway, if SF somehow were to go 36-6 or something ridiculous then they would finish 88-74.
This would actually have potential to be good enough to win the division or even the wild-card.
Yes, they could overtake all those teams for the wildcard even with only 88 wins.

88-74 is a .543 win % and right now the WC is led by SD who have a .542.

So 36-6 in their last 42 would give them a chance.
And I think even as bad as 34-8 so that they finish with only 86 wins COULD possibly do it for either the division or the WC although it would take a lot of help.

I would strongly consider taking this bet though even though I can find ways for it to be not completely impossible for this to happen.
The Giants do suck afterall.

For a little bit less I would almost be willing to take this bet just for "will the Giants make the post-season."
So when you factor in that it's a bet on whether the Giants will make the World-Series I think it ain't too shabby.

[DannyOcean_]

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So when you factor in that it's a bet on whether the Giants will make the World-Series I think it ain't too shabby.

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Not just make, but win. Not shabby indeed! His friend is pretty lol.

[MicroBob]

yeah, i meant "win"

Would definitely take this bet. Pretty much a free $100.
If the most ridiculous scenario EVER somehow happened and I was somehow on the hook for $100k then I would find some way to deal.

OP is really that risk-averse that he isn't going to take this? If he can assume that his friend won't welch when it's time to pay-up then I say go for it.

I think SF has since lost another game since he first posted this. Still 16.5 gb though but now there's only 41 games left.
You could probably up it to $105k or $110k now...or $90 for $100k or something if that would be enough for him to still do this bet.

In fact, for this sillyness I would see if he was somehow interested in putting up $200 to win $200k.

The extra $100 is nice for me is the extremely likely winner. And if I lose then I'm pretty much screwed whether it's $100k or $200k so who cares by that point.