Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Tournament Poker > STT Strategy

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-26-2007, 06:32 PM
Beerocrat Beerocrat is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Stpwned on the moon.
Posts: 185
Default $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out

Stack sizes are approximate. Villain seems semi-donkish, but somewhat observant. Probably around 25/10 for the game thus far.

Right before hands were dealt, BB takes a call on his cell and leaves, and is folded out. It then folds to Villain on button. How much do you increase the probability of him being on a steal with BB gone?

Blinds 300/600 75

UTG 1700
BTN 9000
SB 4300
BB 5000 (sitting out)

Preflop (t1200) Hero is in SB with AKo.

UTG folds, BTN raises to 2000.

There is a shorty, and I don't think I have any FE.

From SNGWiz it looks like a shove, if you assume BTN will call and input his bet as a shove.

Is it wrong to think BTN is doing this with ATC? He wasn't a maniac, but there were a lot of dead chips.

Thoughts?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-26-2007, 06:39 PM
eurythmech eurythmech is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Relocated East
Posts: 2,626
Default Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out

Can't really assume he's smart enough to be on atc here, still this looks like a clear push. You aren't that far ahead of shorty, after all.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-26-2007, 06:52 PM
KCW12 KCW12 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 144
Default Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out

I'm pushing this. Your hand is too strong to fold, especially with the blinds so high.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-26-2007, 07:59 PM
gulon gulon is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 264
Default Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out

To those saying push, please show me what i'm not considering:

If you fold you will have 24.93% EQ
If you call/win you will have 36.1% EQ

So you have to win this push 69%+ to be better than folding if you have no FE.

AKo is only 65% vs Random so are we getting enough of that call/win EQ to make this +EV?

(I know this is different from my original analysis of the hand, beer, but I think the stacks were slightly different and my brain fluctuates day-to-day)
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-26-2007, 09:53 PM
radzik radzik is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 13
Default Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out

this is a shove anyway but especially with the bb sitting out. The only reason you wouldnt move if you were playing to get into money which you shouldnt be anyways.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-26-2007, 09:57 PM
Cawley Cawley is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 103
Default Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out

I really like the call here, with the bb sitting out also to me says he will push here with decent holding i think you have his Ax or Kx crushed though. Can you pm results please mate.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-26-2007, 10:11 PM
holy32 holy32 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 539
Default Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out

This is a really tough situation. If you think SB will fold like the worst 10-20% of his range, this is a push pf.

If not, then this is a nice spot for a stop n' go...
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-27-2007, 11:24 AM
Beerocrat Beerocrat is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Stpwned on the moon.
Posts: 185
Default Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out

[ QUOTE ]
Can't really assume he's smart enough to be on atc here


[/ QUOTE ]

True. But as his range gets smaller, shoving gets less profitable.

[ QUOTE ]

still this looks like a clear push. You aren't that far ahead of shorty, after all.

[/ QUOTE ]

It 'feels' like I am basically calling an all-in with A high and 7BBs left. Is this the wrong way to look at it? I don't know if I win the flip enough to make it profitable.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-27-2007, 11:27 AM
Beerocrat Beerocrat is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Stpwned on the moon.
Posts: 185
Default Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out

[ QUOTE ]
To those saying push, please show me what i'm not considering:

If you fold you will have 24.93% EQ
If you call/win you will have 36.1% EQ

So you have to win this push 69%+ to be better than folding if you have no FE.

AKo is only 65% vs Random so are we getting enough of that call/win EQ to make this +EV?

(I know this is different from my original analysis of the hand, beer, but I think the stacks were slightly different and my brain fluctuates day-to-day)

[/ QUOTE ]

Your math sounds right to me. And AK only wins enough against weaker aces. I think it is a fold now. At the time, I thought I would see a lot of weaker aces but that isn't a reasonable assumption.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 11-27-2007, 11:34 AM
Beerocrat Beerocrat is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Stpwned on the moon.
Posts: 185
Default Re: $120 Bubble AK- FoxWoods SNG- BB sitting out

[ QUOTE ]
This is a really tough situation. If you think SB will fold like the worst 10-20% of his range, this is a push pf.

If not, then this is a nice spot for a stop n' go...

[/ QUOTE ]

I might not have made it clear that I am SB...
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:33 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.