***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

[bugstud]

also, stop comparing garza to guys that never suceeded in pitching in the majors, much less pitching well enough while there.

the pitcher you're looking for on the "potential all-world never making past AA" is Allison, durrrr

[DesertCat]

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What is this Young is really really bad talk? He was a little below average as a 21yo in the bigs. Not only can guys with tools like him take giant leaps forward, they are expected to. Even PECOTA projected a 28 point jump in OPS from age 21-22, which equates to 8 points in EQA. Obviously there is risk that he won't become a superstar, but the chances of him not being at least average over the next five years is on the low side. This is basically the Rays selling low on a five tool 22yo RF after one bad year.

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Delmon Young would be a great five tool prospect if he actually showed any progress in using those tools.

Delmon Young
Year Level OPS
2004 A .922
2005 AA .968
2005 AAA .750
2006 AAA .815
2006 MLB .812
2007 MLB .724

He essentially hasn't improved at all in the last two years. .815 in AAA last year isn't much different than .724 in the majors. The longer he stagnates the less likely it is he'll achieve his upside.

[MuresanForMVP]

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WTF, the final trade was Garza/Barlett and Eduardo Morlan, not Rincon. Imo that makes the trade pretty clearly in TB's favor.

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Whoa, I played with Eddie Morlan in Florida some years back, what's his value like, and how does he project?

[Thremp]

DC,

For once I support one of your posts fully. What you really need is to show a Duncan breakdown. If we could find a way to make him pitch only against Johan clones in the All-Universe team he's hit like a .380/.550/.800 line.

rwperu,

Again, like most poker players you seem to think doing the most EV thing in every situation is the best option. Its clear that it isn't the best option in every scenario. Back to the drawing board.

[rwperu34]

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What if Garza is the next Brazelton or Hamilton?

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what's with the hamilton comparison? garza doesn't have a drug problem, but given hamilton's studly MLB debut, maybe he should give it a try...

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I think the idea is if Hamilton can have his career derailed, anybody can.

[rwperu34]

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Again, like most poker players you seem to think doing the most EV thing in every situation is the best option. Its clear that it isn't the best option in every scenario. Back to the drawing board.


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Whether it's always the best solution is arguable. In this case, the highest EV is the ONLY solution!

[rwperu34]

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WTF, the final trade was Garza/Barlett and Eduardo Morlan, not Rincon. Imo that makes the trade pretty clearly in TB's favor.

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Meh. I'm not sure that Morlan has any more value than Rincon. While the Rays would much rather have Morlan, I'm sure they could trade Rincon for a player of similar value fairly easily. As far as the overall value of the trade, it doesn't affect much.

[rwperu34]

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Don't trade a guy coming off of a bad year or for a guy coming off of a good year.

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Earth-shattering hypothesis, sir. You might like this book called Moneyball...not sure if you've heard of it.

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Evidently the Rays aren't familiar with the concept.

[Thremp]

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Again, like most poker players you seem to think doing the most EV thing in every situation is the best option. Its clear that it isn't the best option in every scenario. Back to the drawing board.


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Whether it's always the best solution is arguable. In this case, the highest EV is the ONLY solution!

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Do you not think of concepts like contracts/variance/etc? Or really are you just [censored] stupid?

[rwperu34]

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The longer he stagnates the less likely it is he'll achieve his upside.

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He's 22 in 2008.