100nl - Turn nut flush, river pairs board

[bubaloo]

Been is this spot a few times...

Villain is 26/15/1.7 over 160 hands, most of his stats are from datamining so, no reads.

Pacific Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.5/$1
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $104.4
Hero: $156.9
Button: $37
SB: $254.35
BB: $114.75

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $5</font>, Button
folds, SB calls, 2 folds.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($12, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $8</font>, SB calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($28, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $17</font>, SB calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($62, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $32</font>, SB raises all-in $224.35, <font color="#cc0000">Hero...</font>

I have $94 left here (half the pot if i call)

My question here is, am i ever ahead vs a check raise on this river? / do you call here?

[bubaloo]

bump

[Saviour_Flare]

I cant see him not raising a set on this flop, even 2 pair. I think you are good here for sure AK, or AQ makes scence here, AQ is what I would put him on. I call.

[Worm75]

[ QUOTE ]
I cant see him not raising a set on this flop, even 2 pair. I think you are good here for sure AK, or AQ makes scence here, AQ is what I would put him on. I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't really see AK/AQ here, would expect villain to likely 3-bets these from the blinds, as well as KQ. Also KQ/AK are raising this flop here nearly always, far to many draws out there to let them get there cheaply. Don't see 66 calling the flop OOP, so really only hand that we are worried about here is TT.

That being said, I'm calling and expecting villain to show up with the QJ/smaller flush here most of the time, really only hands that make sense with the villains line.

[HoldenFoldem]

Villain can see the flush on board. He is not brain dead. Yet he is going all in over top of a smallish bet, and he is CHECK RAISING YOU as well. Only the most super of super lags is going to do this as a bluff. Easy fold. correction, tough fold, but that s what separates the fishermen from the fish.

[FishSticks]

Tricky one. I tend to feel river crai on scary boards at 100NL = nuts like 99$ of the time. I don't really see what boat hands he slowplays on the flop and turn like this to get there, though. Maybe QT I guess.

You're a little deepish which isn't great.

You and villain both have stacks, you must have been there a while. Does he seem good? Reasonable? Bluffylag? If he seems like a fairly reasonable I guess I can fold this the first time I see it.

[bubaloo]

[ QUOTE ]
You and villain both have stacks, you must have been there a while. Does he seem good? Reasonable? Bluffylag? If he seems like a fairly reasonable I guess I can fold this the first time I see it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, i didnt see him do anything out of line, he seemed pretty tag as well.

until he check-raised the river I had no idea what sort of hand he had, as he just called down; if he had shown strength earlier in the hand i think i would have laid it down, but seeing as i had no idea and that I only needed to win this 1 time in 3 to show profit i called...

he shows Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], which kind of makes sense because he might have been worried about flush/straight and decided to just call down and fold if he missed the boat.