Indianapolis @ Baltimore opens at -4 - Page 3

iggymcfly · #21 01-06-2007, 11:08 PM

Well, I mean obviously they wouldn't be given the line, but yeah, I think they should be. They finished one game worse than the Ravens despite playing a significantly tougher schedule, and had much less reason not to be motivated during the regular season.

Again, their losses all came after they'd wrapped up a playoff berth, on the road against mediocre teams. They won their two biggest road games against Denver and New England (this being pre-Cutler Denver that was one of the best teams in the AFC.) Now, when they overperform expectations against KC in their 1st playoff game, I think it points to motivation being their problem all along.

Thremp · #22 01-06-2007, 11:09 PM

Well there are lots of +EV wagers out there for you. GL.

DeezNuts · #23 01-06-2007, 11:13 PM

I just have this weird feeling that the Colts will pull out a great game this Sunday vs. Baltimore. I'm waiting to see if it hits +6 before betting them, though.

Yeah, I know, great analysis. Thanks.

DN

MacGuyV · #24 01-06-2007, 11:19 PM

I dunno about significantly tougher schedule. Cincy & Pittsburgh are as good as or better than all these NFC East teams in the "playoffs" (Philly is debatable).

iggymcfly · #25 01-06-2007, 11:19 PM

Yeah, reading the forum though, it sounds like the sharps are going to be hitting the Ravens hard on the early lines before the Colts bets start coming in closer to gameday. I'll wait until Wednesday or Thursday to jump on the Colts and see how good of a price I can get.

iggymcfly · #26 01-06-2007, 11:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno about significantly tougher schedule. Cincy & Pittsburgh are as good as or better than all these NFC East teams in the "playoffs" (Philly is debatable).

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going with Sagarin on that. He's got the Colts schedule ranked #5 and the Ravens schedule ranked #21. He does have the Ravens as a 5.5 point favorite on a neutral field, but I think that's due to them running up the score against mediocre competition whereas the Colts didn't play hard against weaker opponents this year.

MacGuyV · #27 01-06-2007, 11:31 PM

Fair enough - I guess your theory isn't crazy. However, despite the implications by Collinsworth & everyone else, last year was the first time in 6 years Indy had a 1st round bye; so it's not like they've had crazy pressure on them every year.