Runline versus moneyline?

MCS · #1 07-20-2006, 04:15 PM

Does anyone have any charts/programs which can convert between runlines and moneylines? I want to know if say Atlanta is -165, and the runline has them +115, which is better?

I realize the total and who bats last come into play here, so it's not quite as simple as a single chart, but I'd appreciate any help anyone could give me.

Thanks.

Performify · #2 07-20-2006, 06:06 PM

Craig's SportsBookPal website has this for NFL and NBA:
http://www.sportsbookpal.com/line.htm
But I haven't seen one for Baseball. But the underlying principles should be closer if that helps get you started. They've got a primer on it here: http://www.sportsbookpal.com/spreadvsml.htm

Anyone else have any good tools to share?

MCS · #3 07-20-2006, 06:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Craig's SportsBookPal website has this for NFL and NBA:
http://www.sportsbookpal.com/line.htm

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I have used this before. This is the kind of thing for which I am looking, but for MLB specifically.

PhilipBass · #4 07-20-2006, 08:17 PM

There may not be an exact formula for converting a money line into a run line. The run line is adjusted by the over/under, I think. Wouldn't 1.5 runs be more valuable in a game with a total of 7.5 as opposed to a one with a total of 11? Also, an adjustment is made for the game location. That is because it's riskier to lay 1.5 runs on a home favorite than a road favorite.

MCS · #5 07-23-2006, 11:08 PM

I found something saying that the home team wins by one run about 17% of the time, and the visiting team wins by one run about 10% of the time. Then I suppose you need to adjust a little based on the total and the actual line (e.g., huge home faves will win by exactly 1 less than tiny home dogs). But I think it's a start.