50NL - TT rate my river bluff

Willem · #1 08-22-2007, 12:08 PM

Villain is 24/9/0.8 over a small sample.

So I call flop because I have an overpair. 1: Anybody like a raise here to find out where we're at?

Turn I lean towards folding but I still have an overpair, while I call I'm hoping villain will check river.

River is a great card for me to bluff on I think, because he prolly had on overpair on the turn. 2: How bad/good is this bluff? 3: On what does the effectiveness depend?

I really have no idea if this was a brilliant play or pure spew, please help me out.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($50.55)
MP ($47)
CO ($25.30)
Hero ($73.65)
SB ($84.20)
BB ($56.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to $2.5, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50, 2 folds.

Flop: ($5.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets $5.5, Hero calls $5.50.

Turn: ($16.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets $12, Hero calls $12.

River: ($40.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $53.65 (All-In) (villain has $27 behind)

Nemesis69 · #2 08-22-2007, 12:11 PM

I don't really like it I would raise it up to 15 on the flop. I don't really think you can be happy if another diamond comes on the board. Proceed with caution if called, fold to a reraise.

Holdem_Hussl4 · #3 08-22-2007, 12:13 PM

What do you p-ut him on when hes betting it out. Ace of diamonds at worst. I think thats a terrible bluff.

xeanatic · #4 08-22-2007, 12:18 PM

I'd reraise PF
as played I check behind river.

XHitman014 · #5 08-22-2007, 12:28 PM

You're basically repping 1 hand: Ad-x since I doubt a made flush isn't raising the turn and a set is raising the flop. You may get him to fold JJ but can't see much else folding. If he regards you as a regular, I can't see this bluff working with him getting like 3-1 to call.

Mayyyybe if he extremely weak-tight but overall I don't like it.

corsakh · #6 08-22-2007, 12:29 PM

You have a good made hand. WTF are you doing. This is sick.

Hail Eris · #7 08-22-2007, 12:32 PM

This is terrible. Why are you calling the turn and then turning your hand into a bluff on the river when you still have a ton of showdown value?

Willem · #8 08-22-2007, 12:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You have a good made hand. WTF are you doing. This is sick.

[/ QUOTE ]

How large do you think the chance is we'll win this at showdown?

corsakh · #9 08-22-2007, 12:35 PM

0% is enough to make river EV neutral.

sightless · #10 08-22-2007, 12:56 PM

fold turn