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#63
11-15-2007, 02:32 PM
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Re: NL25 KK
[ QUOTE ]
Because we have FE 0% of the time we check, and I think if he can lay ANYTHING down, he would probably lay down Ax (which, given his stats, it's not impossible he has) if we bet first. [/ QUOTE ] There is no possible way this guy lays down any ace in this situation. Look at stack sizes and the pot. Edit: And even if he didn't have a half size pot bet behind, why would he fold on any ace flop with Ax? That would make no sense. If he's calling a 4-bet with Ax what flop do you think he was hoping for? 
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#64
11-15-2007, 02:41 PM
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Re: NL25 KK
He wouldn't, which is why the argument of checking the flop is ridiculous in the first place. If he's playing AT, he's playing JJ-QQ. He's calling your flop bet no matter what, and if he's folding anything, he could fold a wider range than a few of the people in this thread are assuming. In that case, FE comes into play and makes it an even further +EV play.
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#65
11-15-2007, 02:41 PM
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Re: NL25 KK
you don't need to make your 4bets that big, because there's not enough money left behind at that point to worry about laying big implied odds. if you're going to make your 4bet that big, you might as well just shove pf.
on the flop, its just like playing against a shortstack. typically you c/c if you have something.
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#66
11-15-2007, 02:53 PM
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Re: NL25 KK
[ QUOTE ]
He wouldn't, which is why the argument of checking the flop is ridiculous in the first place. If he's playing AT, he's playing JJ-QQ. He's calling your flop bet no matter what, and if he's folding anything, he could fold a wider range than a few of the people in this thread are assuming. In that case, FE comes into play and makes it an even further +EV play. [/ QUOTE ] Your logic is way off and you aren't factoring the possiblity of villain having some random garbage like JT and bluff shoving flop, the chances of villain making a pair on the turn with some random garbage and stacking off, the potential increase in villains propensity to felt a hand like QQ if you check flop, etc.
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#67
11-15-2007, 03:05 PM
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Re: NL25 KK
Do you really think villain is stupid enough to think he can get you off of the hand with that short of a stack?
I think the possibility this is a bluff is minuscule at best. If it's a bluff, he almost definitely goes AI preflop or folds to the pot committing 4 bet. It really doesn't matter if you check or push. Either way, all the money's getting in the center. He's not folding, and if he does, he made (and already made) a gigantic mistake by calling rather than going AI preflop. If he thinks you're folding 3/1 odds, he should just kill himself for making the call. I think villain is a moron if he called with AT. But he's got an IQ of just-above-coma if he thinks he can bluff anyone off of their hand after CALLING preflop.
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#68
11-15-2007, 03:07 PM
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Re: NL25 KK
My 1st thought and I agree with DCI it is in preflop where the 4bet is too big. If you make it > 1/3 effective stacks you put yourself over the commitment threshold. As played putting 1/2 stack in preflop I think c/call AI or shove AI whatever will make villan call/bet with worse hands some % time -prob just shove -IDK it doesn't really matter.
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#69
11-15-2007, 03:17 PM
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Re: NL25 KK
so if were stacking here is it not better to check shove? If hes agro then he shoves any hand here if u check
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#70
11-15-2007, 03:20 PM
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Re: NL25 KK
[ QUOTE ]
EV=.9*{.70*[0.89*(28.35+22.85)-0.11*(22.85)]+.30*[0.0659*(28.35+22.85)-0.9341*(22.85)]}+.1*{28.35} EV=.9*(0.3372765)+.1*(28.35) EV=3.13 [/ QUOTE ] Talking about fe is pretty ridiculous but there is a serious error in your ev calcs here. edit: basically the error is that you are assuming the 10% of the time villain folds to a shove is evenly distributed across his entire range.
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