When Bookies Make Big Line Errors

[CarlSpackler]

I'll address a few things here:

-- I expect him to have no problem staying liquid. A large chunk of his clientele are car salesmen, who are notorious for being degenerate gamblers. None of his clients are sharps to the best of my knowledge. He gives out horrible odds on all teasers except for the 2 teamers. And while he often sets some lines poorly, imo, he has excellent bankroll management. He's only been doing this for a few years, but he's never not collected $$$ from losers. Plenty of incidents where they've paid late, but he's always collected. He's very smart about how he does this.

-- I'm not going to get stiffed. I know him pretty well. We've been in the same fantasy football league for like 5 years. My largest play with him for the year has been 4 units. It's not like I'm going to drop 20 units on this play. I'm thinking 4 - 6 max. And he has the right to cancel my bet before kickoff.

-- Up to this point, the worst line I've seen him have was BYU -11 vs. AF, when it closed at -14 I think. I hammered it, was paid, no questions asked. (Not that the bad line mattered in that game anyways). And I know a couple guys who bet AF through him, lol.

-- I literally got him his most profitable client. My friend, who bets much bigger than me, is a Dr. Bob disciple and was sick of the line moves on line, and started using my local through me several weeks ago. I've been collecting from (he just went pretty much busto last week)/and paying him, basicallly doing all the legwork.

-- I've put myself in his shoes, and if I made this mistake and someone bet it, I wouldn't be happy about it, but I would understand that I was responsible. Also, it's not like I've been crushing him all season. This is my first year with him, and if that was the case, then I would almost certainly tell him about the error, because that would be the most +EV move. I'm actually down with him, and I'm not going to break him playing this game (if I win, it's not like this is a sure thing! There's significant risk because I'm not going to middle this.), I'll still be down with him for the year actually.

[CarlSpackler]

[ QUOTE ]
Henry,

Interesting. From what I gather the OP is a probably a losing sports bettor and brings in other squares. In this case I'd probably take a shot at the line 100% or if I have other outs that were easy to use. (Also, given that he's made another error that was caught by our not totally razor sharp friend makes me wonder about the quality of the bookie) If I planned on staying for a long time, I'd probably go through some elaborate ruse and show him that I don't want to cheat him out of his money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, lifetime I'm a slight winner over 11 years (mostly due to 3 big winning years, but I have more leaks than the Titantic). This is easily my worst year though.

My basic pattern over the last few years has been the same -- I'll have a good September, as I put in the work and effort to succeed. Then in October the screws start to come loose. I start feeling a little cocky and then I get lazy, sloppy, and occasionally wreckless. I eventually get back to fundamentals, but then I'm gun shy (i.e. like not hammering Arizona +12.5 vs oregon after the line started plummetting despite the vast majority of the public continuing to bet the Ducks) after enduring the rough patch , and then suffer intermittent bouts of tilt mostly due to not capitalizing on +EV situations. I need to start disciplining myself to not make any plays when I don't put in the work.

And you are correct, I brought in his most profitable square.

[Thremp]

Carl,

Anyone with half a clue should be able to kick this guy's face in and put him into poverty in a relatively short period of time.

[CardSharpCook]

Carl, did I misunderstand your OP? Didn't THIS bookie find a bad line from another bookie, bet it, and then inform him of the bad line? You can't go wrong, or even offend him if you did the same here. In fact, he'd respect you less if you didn't.

[CarlSpackler]

Apparently I'm clueless. The vast majority of my plays I've made this year I've had better lines than anywhere available online.

I've basically had 2 horrible weeks this year, 0-8 and 2-7, that have put me in the red for the season (I could try to go 0 - 8 every week the rest of my life and not be able to duplicate that result, lol). The sick thing about that is that in 14 out of the 17 bets, I was getting a line .5 - 2 points better than anywhere I could find online (the other 3 were widely available online).

[CarlSpackler]

[ QUOTE ]
Carl, did I misunderstand your OP? Didn't THIS bookie find a bad line from another bookie, bet it, and then inform him of the bad line? You can't go wrong, or even offend him if you did the same here. In fact, he'd respect you less if you didn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that's exactly what he did. Which tells me he thinks it's acceptable. I think I'm just going to place the bet then tell him he might want to look at that total because it looks a little high. If he cancels the bet, so be it.

[CardSharpCook]

Carl, don't pay attention to Thremp. He's just a pimply teenager with a big e-penis.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
Apparently I'm clueless. The vast majority of my plays I've made this year I've had better lines than anywhere available online.

I've basically had 2 horrible weeks this year, 0-8 and 2-7, that have put me in the red for the season (I could try to go 0 - 8 every week the rest of my life and not be able to duplicate that result, lol). The sick thing about that is that in 14 out of the 17 bets, I was getting a line .5 - 2 points better than anywhere I could find online (the other 3 were widely available online).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what worries me somewhat. Its incredibly easy to beat a guy like this.

[B00T]

the [censored]

I think everyone has to go and retake Sample Size 101

[cato-tonia]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
tell him he has an error

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed.

As Dali found out first hand, dealing with locals is a whole different story.

If you want to continue to be able to use his services, make nice. Try to become as friendly with him as possible. You want to become his best customer, helping him balance his books (assuming you're indeed sharp and will generally be on the other side of a lot of his other customers).

Build a relationship. Get to the point that he actually welcomes your action -- or at least tolerates it in some places because it helps him in others.

Is it worth picking off this one line to ruin the relationship?

-P

[/ QUOTE ]

to quote w.c. fields: never give a sucker an even break. your bookie sure as hell wouldn't.