hows this for a teaser?

[Runner Runner]

I'm too lazy, but someone use the search function........in a previous wong thread someone here ran the numbers and found that teasing from -3 to +3.5 was at least breakeven in NFL over past 15 years. Teasing from -3 -120 or -125 with a line expected to go higher would therefore be +EV.

It does not look appealing to tease thru the zero, but you make up for it by teasing thru the most important number (3) twice.

Also, I like the KC leg of the teaser because he is teasing a Home Dog (best subset) with a historically good homefield advantage off the 4 and through the 6,7 and 10, and also because the tooth fairy told me it would work.

[Jazzy3113]

Im pretty sure if you run the numbers crossing the zero is not breakeven, but a long term loser. Just use this season as the example.

Also, lets just look at this game objectively. Would you rather give the Eagles a field goal or the hawks two scores? One could argue the Eagles looked great on Sunday and the hawks got lucky, but in my experience, the NFL has great parity and giving a decent team two scores is the better play.

Either way, I love the bears and chiefs bet. Home dogs are my favorite bet. Although, I will wait until later in the week as the line will probably move in my favor, esp. for the chiefs.

[WarDekar]

[ QUOTE ]
And you have a winning record on these teasers over a meaningful sample size?

[/ QUOTE ]

PLS tell me if a game closes at -3.5 or -4, what are my chances of winning +3.5?

[hedgie43]

So you're accurately predicting line movements 100% of the time?

[WarDekar]

[ QUOTE ]
So you're accurately predicting line movements 100% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you seriously that dense?

I'm so glad this is the first and last day I will spend on this part of 2p2, you guys are ridiculous!

I've had more winnings confiscated from sportsbooks than you've made your entire life betting (which is pretty easy I guess since you're probably in the red) and been barred from more books than you can count on two hands.

If you want to be a huge dick and continue losing, be my guest.

[hedgie43]

Bye.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you're accurately predicting line movements 100% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you seriously that dense?

I'm so glad this is the first and last day I will spend on this part of 2p2, you guys are ridiculous!

I've had more winnings confiscated from sportsbooks than you've made your entire life betting (which is pretty easy I guess since you're probably in the red) and been barred from more books than you can count on two hands.

If you want to be a huge dick and continue losing, be my guest.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. This is so impressive. I'm happy for you. Now if you'll STFU about +EV teasers. I'd appreciate it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ImStillBen]

WarDekar getting run out for stinking the place up with truth while QueenYao delivers a sold-out symposium on advanced risk management using your gut and thinks his correlated NFL parlay is cashing 44%. I love this place.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
WarDekar getting run out for stinking the place up with truth while QueenYao delivers a sold-out symposium on advanced risk management using your gut and thinks his correlated NFL parlay is cashing 44%. I love this place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I threw up in my mouth a considerable amount when he said that.

Getting the right price and the correct movement is much tougher on these teasers, but working them correctly can make some cheese.

[Performify]

WarDekar ran himself off (or threatened to) solely on the behavior of one poster, Hedgie43, with less than 400 posts.

That's not exactly the consensus of the forum rising up against him. Thremp, one of the more vocal of the runners-off of newbs, actually stepped in and defended his position with a usual backhanded compliment.

-P