10/20, FH, weird river bet from villain

[AB_illusive]

10/20, 3handed.
Villain is fairly tight, 21/13/2, which is stats from mostly 3- and 4-handed play. I have however seen him play higher, and never lower than 10/20, so I expect him to have some kind of understanding of the game.
I am playing 35/28/4. We recently played a hand, where I turn a straight, and he calls a potsized CR on the turn w/ 77 for a dobbelt gutter (I had 75 on a board reading T86-4), and rivers a 9 for the split, so he might expect me to be a bit tilty.

3K stacks.

Btn. folds, I make it 80 in SB w/ 22, he calls.

Flop: K62, 2 spades.

I bet 115, he calls.

Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet 280, he calls again.

River: K, non-spade.

Two things. I plan to check-raise all-in. How does that sound to you?

Anyways, that was what I planned to. Pot is ~960, and now he bets 1050. Wtf? I've never seen him making overbets, even this small an overbet. Is it still a good idea to CRAI? I got 2600 total.

- AB

[adanthar]

nah, I think it's now a call. he's repping the nuts, and on the odd (or not so odd) chance he doesn't have it, a CR to that sized bet is so strong he'll find a fold with anything worse.

[AAismyfriend]

I think villain shows up with a flush/trips here more often than a FH given flop/turn action, but I doubt he is calling a c/r with either of those hands so calling looks good to me.

[ebarnet]

I like shipping here, only thing i'm really worried about is KJ, all other FH's would have raised already.

Seems to me there is a lot of value in shoving. If he thinks you're tilty, he's probably not folding anything he's v-betting on the river.

[Al_Money]

I might just lead river, but I'm sure c/r is fine if he bet less. I just call river since you have no feel for villain's overbet tendencies.

[AB_illusive]

Do you think cr < lead, or is it about the same?

[AB_illusive]

[ QUOTE ]
a CR to that sized bet is so strong he'll find a fold with anything worse.

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What do you say to the initial plan of cr a normal sized bet? Is he calling w/ worse ever, or should I just bet?

My reasoning was that all the hands, that are calling a close to psb on the river are betting anyways, so I might as well go for the cr and hope that he mistakes me for tilting and bluffing him off an obviously not all that great of a hand (unless he has KJ ofc). It just seems like I'm missing some arguments for the cr (like e.g. is he ever paying me off, and should I just be betting all the time 'cause it's better for streamlining my play, etc etc).

Anyone?

[pethie]

With your image I would stick it in for sure. He could easily have a flush here, and he will not fold it - and I don't think he should against you.

However, I think you should pot the river instead of making a c-r. You 3-barrel a lot, and you have to push it hard with your best hands to balance things out. I know that this a good board to c-r, but I don't think YOU should do it.

To sum up: As played you are burning money if you just call, but I think you should bet out in the first play. He will push a flush, if he knows your game.

[Kirkrrr]

I'd say given the action you will have the best hand the vast majority of the time so no need to overthink it, once he bets fist pump shove.

Kirk

[HeheOkok]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say given the action you will have the best hand the vast majority of the time so no need to overthink it, once he bets fist pump shove.

Kirk

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