Ohhh Baluga....

[toddxlogan]

Hi all-

Villain in this hand is 40/10/2 over about 200 hands. Thats about all I got.

Again, i'll leave my thoughts to later. Your action?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $29.15
BB: $55.70
UTG: $68.00
Hero (MP): $52.60
CO: $49.70
BTN: $36.75

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $2.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, BTN calls $3.00

Turn: ($10.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $8.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $16.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero feels a degree of separation between baluga and his knee-jerk reaction... </font>

[.xxxx.]

How are you applying Beluga to this hand? I'm rusty with the theorem.

fwiw, BTN is committed and you're definitely ahead of his range, repush turn

[VivaHate]

I like a push here. His range includes lots of
weaker kings , also if he's got top pair with the fdraw he could make this play.

[toddxlogan]

Well, to my understanding, that i need to seriously evaluate the strength of my 1-pair hand when facing resistance on the turn.

[Panic__NL]

True but Villian is a shortstack, the flop is not drawless, Villian is somewhat agressive. Taken all of this in consideration I think pushing is good here, your are OOP and you cant be sure he wil be betting a weak king again on the river.

[VivaHate]

Also take into account the fact that his stats show him to be a fish/donk, the baluga theorem should be used against better players.

[lanolin]

This one is quite tough, and I think I might make my decision based on the flow of the game. My image and his image. But my problem with this hand is that it looks like he's trying to get all the chips in the middle: With an mRaise now, and if you call that, you're gonna have to go for the last 15$. It doesn't look like he's trying to get you out of the hand.
But if you've been folding to minRaises on the turn more often...

His range does include some weaker kings, suited kings I think would RR on the flop and not on the turn (and definitely not minimum but would probably push)
His range also includes medium pairs and suited connectors, and the long shot is that he just got his SD card to go with his FD. (7h9h, 5h7h, 4h5h). Or he could have 2p like 68s, or trips (6, 8 or 3).

My last option is going all in now. That makes him money with his big hands that beat you, and let him get away from most the hands that were bluffing (except maybe KQ, KJ). I'm not so sure he would be mRaising on the turn with a draw.

I'd rather call here, see the river, and probably call the river- becasue I don't really put him on a big draw, and I want to let him at least bluff again if he is on a bluff.

But I think there's a good chance you're beat and don't have many outs; 5 at best. I would put this down to a judgement call. Would he make this play with a weak king? Have you made many 2 barrel bluffs lately that you had to lay down? -are you perceived to be solid and dangerous or tight and weak? etc.

later.

[traz]

against this guy I get it in happily and expect him to show KT-KQ

[HoldEmNewby]

a push is def. in order.

I think your flop bet is leaving money on the table. Bet $4 on the flop.

[filsteal]

I think a player like this will play a set this way more often than he'll play KQ-KT this way, but of course his flop range has more KQ-KT than sets.

He also could have the same hand as you, because you don't know if he'll 3-bet AK preflop.

I think a push is probably right, but I'm not happy about it.