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#1
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Re: Stud/8 weird spot
I don't think it would be very hard to just figure this out with twodimes and a notepad, just time consuming.
Just assume that we're getting every chip in on 5th no matter the cards and that the opponent never folds. Then calculate the EV of some sample cases and average it out according to frequency of hole cards. If that turns out to be positive I think it's pretty safe to play on. Looking quickly at some 5th street scenarios it doesn't seem entirely implausible that it may work out to me. It's pretty hard for the other guy to have a hand strong enough that it would be right to fold with open cards on that street. Since checkraising and betting fifth largely eliminates the reverse implied odds that is the reason you usually checkfold on 5th I think playing on is a lot more plausible than it might look on it's face. If you'll estimate your opponents hole card range I can make some rough calculations. Thinking about it, it's pretty likely that the other guy severly underestimates our strength for high here. |
#2
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Re: Stud/8 weird spot
His range is something like rolled,(JJ)+,(Ace-low), lots of 3-low flush hands, any (baby-baby).
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#3
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Re: Stud/8 weird spot
folding fourth is good, also agreewith djk that folding third would be HORRIBLE
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#4
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Re: Stud/8 weird spot
[ QUOTE ]
His range is something like rolled,(JJ)+,(Ace-low), lots of 3-low flush hands, any (baby-baby). [/ QUOTE ]Ok. I write equity from 0-1 rather than 0-100 or a fractional number. Since that's the way twodimes puts it out and it saves on pixels. Rolled, you've got .132. But one of his threes are dead, which drastically cuts down on those possibilities. Against high pairs you range from .24 (AA) .36, (KK) .40 (JJ-QQ). And that's nine combos of JJ and QQ vs only 6 combos of AA and KK. Unpaired ace-low ranges from .3 (with a four-wheel and three flush cards) to .4 (with only a three straight and a two-flush). A553 you have about .38 equity against. Unpaired lowflush gives you from .39 to .30 (if he has straight and a flushdraw). Paired 3-flush ranges gives you about .35 Non-flushed, non-paired babies also gives you about .35. Paired, non-flushed babies give you about .40. You didn't mention them, but surely A33 must have been a starting possibility as well? Against those you have .40 in equity. Out of your proposed range there's only 7 combinations where you lose significant money. And only when he's rolled up do you lose big, which is about 2.5 BB. Against the aces you lose 1 SB. Of course, you're never ahead but, having .40 of the pot is a pretty big win (1.3 SB) and that's going to happen pretty often. In fact you,ve just the equity from JJ and QQ balances out the hits you take against 333 and aces. Everything else is pure gravy. And against most of those hands you make a fair bit of money from the pot. There's only a few open-ended straights that you lose money against, and then it's not very much. So to me this seems like a hand you definitely should play. Assuming there's no bug in twodimes S8. At the very least your loss can only be small. And I doubt you have an average loss here a lot. I'd definitely like to see a model where OP loses money by raising 4th and betting 5th and 6th against calls 100% of the time. I just don't see it now. |
#5
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Re: Stud/8 weird spot
Maybe if villain manage to dodge a lot of the hands he should fold on 5th. But I don't see that happening as big pairs and four-lows never can fold and the small pairs with a 3-low only can fold if we pair our board and he bricks. And even then most of his small pairs *should* call on 5th, no matter our board cards.
So any of his strategies that try to save money when we suck out seems like it's bound to earn us more money than if we get it all-in on 4th. And if we go all-in on every 5th and 6th, that's the same as going all-in on 4th, when we do have good enough equity to do so. |
#6
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Re: Stud/8 weird spot
thanks for doing all those calcs
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