AAAT in limit O8

[BigBiceps]

In limit O8, nine handed, folded to you in MP3 with AAAT with the ace suited with the ten.

Is the correct move to fold, call or raise preflop vs. unknown opponents?

[nuclear500]

3-6 handed, raise, 9 handed dumper.

[Olrik]

is it really worth to raise a set shorthanded?

[Spartan73]

Fold. Aces aren't that strong in LO8.

[cjs]

Raise - get it heads up with the blinds and play poker. :-)

[Heron]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise - get it heads up with the blinds and play poker. :-)

[/ QUOTE ]

But you have to play poker very well because you are a 1:2 dog against a random hand.



Monte carlo simulation results from Poker Calculator 1.1.4.1
Omaha Hold'em hi/lo 8/b, 100000 combinations tested.

Hand | AdAsAcTd | xxxx |
------+--------------+--------------+
High | 13894 | 0 |
Draw | 151 | 151 |
Lose | 57226 | 28729 |
Scoop | 28729 | 57226 |
Low | 0 | 13907 |
------+--------------+--------------+
Win% | 35.75% | 64.25% |
------+--------------+--------------+


AdAsAcTd:
Pair win: 22351 draw: 0 lose: 51342
Two Pair win: 4012 draw: 69 lose: 4285
Three of a Kind win: 1638 draw: 7 lose: 596
Straight win: 2306 draw: 75 lose: 267
Flush win: 6379 draw: 0 lose: 464
Full House win: 5814 draw: 0 lose: 272
Quads win: 53 draw: 0 lose: 0
Straight Flush win: 70 draw: 0 lose: 0


xxxx:
High Card win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 2537
Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 24914
Two Pair win: 27808 draw: 69 lose: 8832
Three of a Kind win: 6843 draw: 7 lose: 2609
Straight win: 10771 draw: 75 lose: 1325
Flush win: 5313 draw: 0 lose: 1290
Full House win: 5877 draw: 0 lose: 1116
Quads win: 528 draw: 0 lose: 0
Straight Flush win: 86 draw: 0 lose: 0

[davebreal]

i think the real question here is simply "Why bother"?

you have an unprofitable hand, and will almost always lose if someone calls you down, especially if low cards hit.

f your hand was AAA+wheel suited then we're talking a whole different ball game.

[1MoreFish4U]

Folded to me, I almost always raise.

I can get away from it if I need to.

[Buzz]

Big Biceps - What to do with this hand is entirely opponent dependent.

I have sometimes (but not always) raised pre-flop with this hand. If I get one opponent calling, he/she probably has the missing ace. So we start out he/she reading me for a possible pair of aces plus two mystery cards and me reading him/her for a single ace plus three mystery cards. And then I play accordingly on the second betting round, probably following up with a continuation bet.

Since Hero has three aces, there's a fair chance nobody else has an ace. When I'm playing tightly, the percentage of starting hands I'll play without an ace is very low - less than ten percent.

[ QUOTE ]
In limit O8, nine handed, folded to you in MP3 with AAAT with the ace suited with the ten.

[/ QUOTE ]So UTG, MP1, and MP2 have folded, with LP1, CO, Button, SB and BB yet to act. Let's assume the three hands that folded were aceless.

That leaves five hands that could possibly have an ace. 52-12-4=36 cards that could have an ace and 20 of them held by opponents yet to act. Looks like the probability one of the opponents yet to act has the missing ace is 20/36= 0.556. So it's about 4 to 5 that nobody yet to act has the missing ace. Pretty close.

Even if someone has the ace, assuming you don't usually raise when you enter the action from MP3, he/she should probably tentatively put you possibly on a pair of aces for your raise, decreasing the value of his/her own ace. And the raise will make it at least a bit more difficult for anyone to continue.

If none of them has the missing ace, will they all fold, except maybe BB?*

That is the cogent question. I don't know the answer. I think it depends entirely on your opponents.

*(And then maybe you pick off BB with a continuation bet after a check on the second betting round).

Buzz

[Olrik]

so basicly you are saying that against tight and _thinking_ villians this hand might be worth a raise, in any other case muck it.