Blackjack question about long term (Math Question)

[Total Poker Noob]

I am about 10 minutes from a couple of casinos. I pass them on my way to and from work. One of them offers $10 Double Deck Pitch Games. I must say that I am a much better Blackjack player than a poker player.

I play basic stratagy ALWAYS. I had print out the odds chart for the game from wizard of odds. I also made flash cards for all of the possible hands.

Here is the game:
Double Deck
Dealer Stands on S17
Double any 2 cards
Split up to 4 times
Double after Spliting
No Surrender
No Respliting Aces
1 card only to split aces
Blackjack pays 3 to 2

Now for the math....
Assuming an $8,000 bankroll, What is my likelyhood of being able to go in after work and win $200 a night playing $20 a hand on a daily basis. I am sure some nights this might be a 15 minute stop and others it may take a while. But an extra $50K a year is not to bad either.

So I ask What is my risk or ruin on this game?

[SheetWise]

I would put your top bet at $40, but a lot of people would be comfortable with a top bet of $80 -- but the problem with both of these is that it's difficult to proportion downward, because you want your top bet to be 5x your low bet (or more). Table minimums become a limitation when you play with a small bankroll.

In either case, a theoretical $200 a night is possible -- but you won't realize it that way, $2,000 swings won't be uncommon. I usually figure 300 hrs. of play to double a bankroll of 200 top bets. I've done it in as little as 50 hrs., and taken as long as 1,800 hrs. (after proportioning down twice).

[pzhon]

The house advantage on this game is about 0.255%, according to this edge calculator: http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/ho...alculator.html

If you assume that you decrease the next day's quota in case you overshoot on the previous day, then you can view this as a gambler's ruin problem, where you start with $8k and are trying to win $50k. It's reasonable to use a coinflip model with about the same edge and standard deviation.

You lose 0.255% of $20 per hand, or 5.1 cents. The standard deviation is about $23 per hand, so we'll model this as a coinflip for $23, with a win probability set so that you lose 5.1 cents per hand.

The result I get is a probability of success of 0.0000511153, or the odds against you are 19,563:1. Good luck.

By the way, this assumes you don't tip. Tipping is expected if you play for a while. If you start with $10,000, and bet $20/hand until you go bust or reach $10,200, you play an average of about 4875 hands (and you average $9751 when you finish). Usually, you win in only about a hundred hands, but when you lose, it usually takes tens of thousands of hands.

[Poshua]

OP, you don't state that you will be counting cards. Are you planning to do so? Otherwise, this is still a -EV game. It won't be a source of net income for you over time and, given enough hands, your risk of ruin is 100%.

[Nick Rivers]

Don't expect to get away with counting cards everyday after work on a double deck game with those rules. Your odds of making 50k in a year doing so are virtually nil. Your odds of making 50k in a year without counting cards are virtually nil. In other words, your plan isn't going to work.

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't expect to get away with counting cards everyday after work on a double deck game with those rules. Your odds of making 50k in a year doing so are virtually nil. Your odds of making 50k in a year without counting cards are virtually nil. In other words, your plan isn't going to work.

[/ QUOTE ]

It can be done -- but pretty tough with only 2 casinos. Play some days before work, some days after, and try weekends on the shift you miss during the week. They're probably keeping track of your wins both by the checks on the table and through the cashier -- so palm checks and put them in your pocket, and when you cash out, cash what's on the table -- have an accomplice cash the checks you palm. You need to create an illusion that understates your wins and overstates your losses. Often times simply stating your losses in a conversation with the pit is enough evidence for them to record it. It's a lot harder if you're playing $100's or $500's+ and you're the only player at the table playing those checks, because they can record your win/loss from the tray -- but playing multiple quarters you should be able to hide a lot. What they're going to record is your drop, final color up, and cash out. It can work if they think you're losing.

[Jim14Qc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't expect to get away with counting cards everyday after work on a double deck game with those rules. Your odds of making 50k in a year doing so are virtually nil. Your odds of making 50k in a year without counting cards are virtually nil. In other words, your plan isn't going to work.

[/ QUOTE ]

It can be done -- but pretty tough with only 2 casinos. Play some days before work, some days after, and try weekends on the shift you miss during the week. They're probably keeping track of your wins both by the checks on the table and through the cashier -- so palm checks and put them in your pocket, and when you cash out, cash what's on the table -- have an accomplice cash the checks you palm. You need to create an illusion that understates your wins and overstates your losses. Often times simply stating your losses in a conversation with the pit is enough evidence for them to record it. It's a lot harder if you're playing $100's or $500's+ and you're the only player at the table playing those checks, because they can record your win/loss from the tray -- but playing multiple quarters you should be able to hide a lot. What they're going to record is your drop, final color up, and cash out. It can work if they think you're losing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Card counting is still required though.