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#11
07-06-2007, 05:54 AM
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Re: Iso raise..not so good.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I understand zeebos theorem plays into affect here, but my question is do you think I have the odds to call his bet on the river? [/ QUOTE ] Before you ask that, ask what you're beating. You lose to every single pocket pair, AK, A9, any Kx, and you chop with any Ax that isn't spades. In other words, basically zip. Also, Zeebo's Theorem, if I understand it, is that nobody FOLDS a full house. [/ QUOTE ] Correct. As for the hand, fold river. This looks like a rivered flush, and like marchron said, you beat almost nothing anyway. (I first thought this might be a K with a weak kicker that no longer plays, but he would have woken up on the turn, no?) 
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#12
07-06-2007, 08:39 AM
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Re: Iso raise..not so good.
In my effort to see more showdowns, I have had a slight pendulum swing and have become a showdown monkey. Aussie, that line immediately came to mind as I was deciding whether to call or fold. "They don't bluff that much." Shame I didn't listen. May have been slightly from tilt, I was having a rough session of rivered 2 and 4 outers. With split second decisions, even a small amount of tilt can throw off a game.
I think my pf play was standard, but was a marginal play at best. Folding would not be entirely incorrect vs this opponent. I wanted to play that hand to much and knew the best way was HU. As far as postflop, I made one fatal error. I didn't think of what I could beat. Instead of that, I thought, hmm I need to win this one in 6 times to be a correct play. I don't think I win one in 12 times here. Also, zeebos theorem goes into 3 of a kind on the board. Many players will not fold for that chance at the full house. This was one such opponent. My turn bet was meh, but was probably not going to fold him anyway. Good comments all.
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#14
07-06-2007, 10:25 AM
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Re: Iso raise..not so good.
[ QUOTE ]
I thought, hmm I need to win this one in 6 times to be a correct play. I don't think I win one in 12 times here. [/ QUOTE ] I don't make calls where I win one in 6. You just wont win that many. If I'm looking for odds to snap off a bluff, or odds to make a river call correct, I'm looking for one in 15 or something juicy like that. I see a lot of showdowns, but this is an easy fold. I think the reason my showdown numbers are high, and maybe yours too, are hands like this, against passive types, who will check this river with a baby full house and we take a free showdown and lose. Not because we are calling bets on the river with weak hands. As long as you folded the river, I love the whole hand. I would have been begging for a turn fold. My thought, as I bet this turn, is it's the last money I'm putting in the pot UI.
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#15
07-06-2007, 08:38 PM
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Re: Iso raise..not so good.
[ QUOTE ]
I think my pf play was standard, but was a marginal play at best [/ QUOTE ] No wai! This is such a standard re-steal. Think of what his stealing range is (or use his ats% from pt [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]), anyway, it includes many worse Aces, many worse Jacks and a whole bunch of pairs TT- and just many worse hands. [ QUOTE ] My W2SD went down and my Winrate is up. They arent bluffing as much as they think they are...isnt that right Snitch [/ QUOTE ] Ahmen my brutha! CAN I GET AN AY-MEN!?
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#16
07-06-2007, 09:18 PM
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Re: Iso raise..not so good.
[ QUOTE ]
No wai! This is such a standard re-steal. Think of what his stealing range is (or use his ats% from pt [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]), anyway, it includes many worse Aces, many worse Jacks and a whole bunch of pairs TT- and just many worse hands. [/ QUOTE ] The more I think about it, I just don't see him trying a steal here. Against another opponent, I would agree.
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#17
07-06-2007, 10:44 PM
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Re: Iso raise..not so good.
Not that the results matter, but what did he quote-unquote "steal" with? Given what you've said now, I think I can pretty confidently put him on his exact hand. <font color="white">KQ. Mayyyyybe KJ or KT.</font>
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#18
07-06-2007, 10:51 PM
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Re: Iso raise..not so good.
[ QUOTE ]
3-betting here preflop should be really standard. [/ QUOTE ] 3-betting AJo blindly will loose you money in the long run. AJo is clearly a close 3-bet as ATo is not a standard 3-bet. 3-bet if you think that villains opening range is wider than top 15'ish. Stop claiming that a tweener is a standard play without reads!
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