interesting hand (to me at least) - 1/2 LO8 top set, NL draw on turn

jasonHoldEm · #1 06-14-2007, 05:45 PM

I'm coming back to poker after taking most of the last year off. I had played a little O8 before my hiatus and decided to come back to it (I plan on picking up the other mixed games rather than going back to hold'em...I'm sick of hold'em at this point).

Anyways, I'm still pretty green on O8, but this situation came up last night and I thought it was sort of interesting.

PokerStars 1/2 Omaha/8 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero calls, 4 folds, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, Button calls, SB calls.

(as an aside, if you have the 2c instead of 2h would you raise here and try to fold a K/Q high flush draw? Perhaps not in 1/2 but in higher levels? seems like it would be a good opportunity to make the attempt)

Turn: (4 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, Button calls, SB calls $0.25 (All-In), BB calls $1.75 (All-In).

To me the interesting part is the turn. I've been playing around with an O8 simulator and it seems like the worst case scenario I can think of still has me at even money (25% pot equity)

Code:<hr /><pre> Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
32 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 9c6c3dJs
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
AhJhJc2h 25.00% 4 6 0 0 12
Ac2c4h5h 37.50% 5 11 0 4 12
9s9h6s6h 6.25% 2 2 0 0 0
7h8sThQs 31.25% 7 13 0 0 0</pre><hr />

...perhaps there is a possibility I'm not thinking of, but regardless in real life you're never going to be up against 3 perfect hands (knock on wood) so your overlay in this situation is probably somewhere between good and great even though there are a lot of cards that can come on the river that will be scary.

I guess the main argument in jamming the turn is that there are certain river cards that could come where it would be difficult to decide to if you should pay off or not (a non-club king for example) and those times when a low club falls you might end up getting 1/4'd in a raising war (although w/ four players that's a moot point since you'd break even, but if one folded it would be true). In the specific hand at worst I have to call one bet on the river (since two players are now all-in) so that's not a big deal in this specific hand, but in general.

I'd be interested to hear what some of the more veteran players think about the hand and what their analysis would be. Maybe I'm easily amused, but I thought it was an interesting "can't lose" situation.

Thanks,
jHE

Buzz · #2 06-15-2007, 03:03 AM

Jason - What may be confusing is the way the simulator data is presented. With your hand specifications there are 32 missing cards.
AhJhJc2h wins high with 6 of them (Jc,3c,3h,3s,As,Ad) but only scoops with the first four of these, and wins a share of the pot for low with 4c,4d,4s,5c,5d,5s,7c,7d,7s,8c,8d,8h.

The simulator apparently counts a high scoop as a whole, a high split for a half and a share for low as a quarter.

Thus for AhJhJc2h, 4/1+2/2+12/4=8.
Then 8/32 = 0.25, or 25.0%
-----
Ac2c4h5h
wins high and scoops with Kc,Qc,Tc
wins high for a half with 5c,4c,7c,8c,4s,4d,2s,2d
wins low for a half with As,Ad,2s,2d
wins low for a quarter with 4c,4d,4s,5c,5d,5s,7c,7d,7s,8c,8d,8h.

Thus for AhJhJc2h, 3/1+8/2+4/2+12/4=12.
Then 12/32 = 0.375, or 37.5%
-----
9s9h6s6h
wins high and scoops with 9d,6d
Thus for 9s9h6s6h, 2/1=12.
Then 2/32 = 0.0625, or 6.25%
-----
7h8sThQs
wins high and scoops with Kd,Kh,Ks,Qd,Qh,Td,Ts
wins high for a half with 5d,5s,7d,7s,8d,8h
Thus for 7h8sThQs, 7/1+6/2=10.
Then 10/32 = 0.3125, or 31.25%

At any rate, that's evidently how the simulator you're using computes your "pot equity." It doesn't take into account the two side pots.

One obvious problem is you don't know what cards your opponents actually hold.

Whatever.

I think you played the hand fine.

Should you raise on the 2nd betting round to knock out king and queen flushes if you have the 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? I don't know. If the tactic works, it seems worthwhile. I think in some games it probably works.

Buzz