25nl: A little lost with JJ

[derosnec]

so how did you play this hand?

[derosnec]

it's a bit close on the flop ( i weighted the hands so i took out some of the hands without clubs, but not all since he will bluff with some of those)

QQ+
TdTh,TdTs,ThTs
AQs+
KcQc
AQo+
KcQd,KcQh,KcQs,KdQc,KhQc,KsQc

you have 50% equity (we can increase it a little if we assume he never bets out with made flushes)

(i think i did that right; still practicing)

[derosnec]

so, fooling around with some math:

a) assume he never leads his made flush here (which is pretty accurate for $25nl)

b) i include less hands for AQo/AQs and KQo/KQs to weigh them less for his 3-betting range

c) range is:

QQ+
TT (3 combos)
AdKd,AhKh,AsKs
AdQd,AhQh
KhQh
AKo
AcQs,AdQs,AhQs,AsQh
KcQs,KdQs,KhQs,KsQh

d) if you shove the flop, let's be liberal and say he calls with all his pocket pairs. so, pockets are 46% of his total range and you have 25% equity against them: ($28 x .25 - .75 x $22) .46 = -$4.37

e) if you shove the flop assume he calls with all unpaired hands that contain a club. so, those are 17% of his range and you have 50% equity against them: ($28 x .50 - .50 x $22) .17 = $.51

f) if you shove flop assume he folds all unpaired hands with no club: that's 37% of his range. (+$10) .37 = $3.70

so, a shove gives you -$.14 EV. However, if he folds his pocket pairs as little as, say, 10% of the time, or you expand his range a little more to include some more AQ/KQ hands, or if he calls with AKo no clubs some % of the time, the shove likely becomes +EV. And given that our opponents play band in reraised pots often, he is likely to play incorrectly against a shove.

(i think i did that right)