FT-NL100 6MAX----Put him on a set or two pair

[CharlieDontSurf]

Villian is decent...figured for a set or two pair

Knowing this...was this a good or bad?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $97.70
UTG+1: $161.20
CO: $66
Hero: $141.45
SB: $136.90
BB: $162.25

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with
UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $2</font>, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: ($11, 5 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $10</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $20</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $50</font>, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $139.45</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB calls all-in $84.9</font>.
Uncalled bets: $4.55 returned to Hero.

[SMACK BOOTY]

This is a timely post, as I am struggling with this very issue...ie...what type(s) of draws do I poooosh.
On the positive side, you have my fav draw, OESD and FD, theoretically 15 outs.
On the negative side, SB didn't raise PF but has something big, so you might be looking at trips, reducing your outs to 13. "Rule of Four" says you are slightly better than even money, and you are getting slightly more than even money on the bet. Factor in the smaller possibilty of 2 pair or overpar, and I like the poooosh, but then again, I like to gamble.

[CharlieDontSurf]

because i thought he had a set after thinking about it I was regretting the push.

[AE6]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35,640 games 0.094 secs 379,148 games/sec

Board: 7s 5h 2h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.1117 % 48.11% 00.00% { 8h6h }
Hand 2: 51.8883 % 51.89% 00.00% { 77, 55, 22, 75s, 72s, 52s, 75o, 72o, 52o }


Looks like you're flippin. With all the money already in the pot, this is an easy push.

Just sets:

8,910 games 0.005 secs 1,782,000 games/sec

Board: 7s 5h 2h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.2581 % 40.26% 00.00% { 8h6h }
Hand 2: 59.7419 % 59.74% 00.00% { 77, 55, 22 }

[delta k]

nh. you're 50% v 2pr. id hate to see A7hearts FD.

SB c/r your c/r which says he has a hand. if you call that he's got 84 behind in a $100+ pot and it's going in. I'd rather take 2 shots at that by pushing this flop, plus he MIGHT fold a 2pr hand or even bottom pair (plus he has a SD or overpair like JJ often enough, too)

[stargazer]

If the plan is to be cautious I like the concept behind the minraise on the flop. If everyone folds behind you, CO is sure to call with any connection to this flop, and will probably check the turn to you. Free card. Hitting the straight (NOT the flush) would be disguised &amp; you can bet for value. Hitting a flush card will probably close the action.

But if you're intending to push anyways (gambooool) you might have had more FE by doing that to start.

Unfortunately they didnt all fold behind you. With SB raising you have to figure he'll call your push, so forget FE. Now you're probably close to a coin flip.

vs Overpair you're 56/44
vs Set you're 40/60
vs 2 pair you're 50/50
vs Higher flush draw you're 34/65
vs Ah7h you're 28/72

Not bad but realize that once the SB raised you, FE is gone and your choices are fold or gamboool.
I don't like the switch from cautious to gambooool _after_ the SB likely commits himself.

[dchz]

i think the worst hand you could be up against is A7h, which means you still got pretty good equity given the situation, all others i would think you are at worst even money?

[delta k]

you have to realize the size of the pot, we can't push the first time around (although min raise is a little too small IMO). as played now the pot is pretty large so we're getting like 3:1 on our push (or something like that)

[toffer]

Your min-raise on the flop makes it a closer decision than it should be.

When the action gets back to you on the flop, there's $90 in the pot, and it costs you $120 to put SB all-in. So, you're betting $120 to win $180, or getting 3:2 odds.

Given the action, I think SB almost always has a set, which would makes your push EV neutral, since the pokerstove analysis posted by AE6 above shows you have 40% equity. There's a chance he has 2 pair here as well, so I agree with your push here.

But, my point is, if you had made a real raise on the flop (to $35-40), then the push decision is much easier, since it would clearly be right. The pot would be bigger, and it would cost you less to put the SB all-in.

I don't see why you would want to make a min-raise there anyway. What was your reasoning?

[stargazer]

I don't think the 50/50 part is important. This problem is a perfect illustration of the value of FE.

Here you are _just_ even money and _don't_ have any FE whatsoever. Do you *call* 150BB with an EV=0 50%/50% shot like this? (Or, AKs vs JJ preflop) I don't. When I'm pooshing 150BB it's with an edge, either from hitting the board or knowing I have good FE.